RaboResearch - Economic Research

After a long period of geopolitical tension, Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine on Thursday, February 24.

The west has imposed severe economic sanctions on Russia in response to the invasion, and there may be more to come. What do the ongoing war and corresponding sanctions mean for global economies, financial markets, and food & agribusiness?

In this dossier we provide an overview of all RaboResearch publications that describe the impact of the war in Ukraine. We will update this dossier whenever new information becomes available.

Additionally, our Global Daily includes coverage of the latest developments in Ukraine and the impact on the global economy, the same way our regional teams have been informing with weekly reports (for instance for Brazil).

Farmer Production Margins in Brazil for 2022/23: Good Margins on the Horizon Despite Soaring Fertilizer Prices – May 23, 2022
Fertilizer and other operational costs for farmers have risen considerably following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Still, grain producers in Brazil can achieve good margins for the 2022/23 season by taking advantage of high world market prices for soybeans and corn.

The Russia-Ukraine War’s Impact on Food & Agri: What Oceania’s Food & Agri Chain Has To Plan For – May 12, 2022
Cost increases across the farming sector are expected in 2022 due to high fertilizer and energy prices. This report considers these, plus other impacts the Russia-Ukraine war may have in store for food & agri in Oceania and further afield.

Foodservice in Troubled Times – Impact of the War in Ukraine –  May 5, 2022
This special edition of our Foodservice Quarterly focuses on the impact that the war in Ukraine may have on the foodservice industry in the immediate and the longer term. High prices will not revert any time soon and foreign brands operating in Russia are exposed to reputational risks, which might have consequences for long-term strategies.

War in Ukraine Reveals the Pain Points in the European Food System’s Transition - April 28, 2022
The war in Ukraine is a major blow to global food systems. Countries that rely heavily on imports of grains, oilseeds, fertilizers, and energy have experienced supply chain disruptions. In order to feed the world sustainably, the European food system must be resilient to shocks. But the consequences of the war call for short-term solutions to solve acute food insecurity – some of which may be at odds with the transition of our food system.

The divergent impacts of the war in Ukraine on the EU’s energy transition - April 26, 2022
Given the EU reliance on Russian fossil fuels, the war in Ukraine impacts the speed of the energy transition. This article maps the main impacts and whether the measures adopted to mitigate them may delay or accelerate the energy transition.

Ukraine war poses a threat to EU industry - April 12, 2022
The Ukraine war has sparked another supply chain crisis. EU industry will be impacted via higher prices of both energy and non-energy commodities, lengthened delivery times of inputs and possibly shortages. Germany and Italy are relatively vulnerable.

The Russia-Ukraine War’s Impact on Global Fertilizer Markets – April 5, 2022
The global Farm Inputs team outlines how the war in Ukraine is affecting fertilizer markets – and, in turn, crop growing regions – across the world.

The Netherlands – Navigating an Uncertain Economic Outlook - March 31, 2022
We were moderately positive about 2022, despite growing concerns about the high inflation prints. But that was all before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Continued Inflationary Pressure Across Food Packaging Materials - March 30, 2022
Inflationary pressure will continue to rise in 2022, with food packaging being a major contributor, due to high demand, supply disruptions, and cost increases. This is the inflation outlook for the next 12 months in North America for paper, plastic, aluminum, and glass in light of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Podcast: Grain Markets and the Black Sea – March 24, 2022
The war raging in Ukraine will affect global markets for grains and farm inputs – but how much and for how long? Global Sector Strategist for Grains & Oilseeds Steve Nicholson talks with analysts Andrick Payen and Sam Taylor for an update on the situation and to discuss the what-ifs of a prolonged conflict.

Will Europe be left in the cold next winter? - March 22, 2022
The current energy crisis has highlighted the geopolitical risks associated with our dependence on Russian gas. The EU aims to become fully independent from Russian energy, but replacing Russian gas fully is easier said than done.

The War in Ukraine’s Impact on Malting Barley Availability: Maltsters Need To Be Prepared to Step Up – March 22, 2022
Russia and Ukraine together produce about 18% of global barley, and supply about 30% of barley exports. The war has impacted trade flows and global barley supplies. Competition from other crops could further decrease barley production, particularly malting barley.

European Paper Packaging Braces for Impact of Ukraine Crisis – March 17, 2022
How is the Russia-Ukraine conflict impacting paper packaging producers in Europe? This article explains how the price and supply of energy and raw materials are putting pressure on this sector and its downstream supply chain.

Podcast: The Worst Supply Chain Disruptions, Ranked – March 16, 2022
Inflation, war, and general chaos are disrupting every aspect of the beer value chain. Bart Watson, Chief Economist for the Brewers Association, and Michael Uhrich, former Chief Economist for the Beer Institute, join the latest episode of Liquid Assets to discuss inflation, the supply chain crisis, and how brewers might manage them.

Economic growth in the Netherlands expected to weaken due to war in Ukraine - March 16, 2022
The war in Ukraine is expected to lead to strongly rising prices and impediments to foreign trade, resulting in lower economic growth in the Netherlands this year.

Podcast: Urea Price Halfpipe – March 15, 2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has quickly sent global urea prices upward once again. Cheryl Kalisch Gordon is joined by Wes Lefroy to dissect the market and discuss the implications this war holds for Australian farmers looking to purchase urea ahead of the winter.

Beer and the Russia-Ukraine Conflict – March 15, 2022
The direct effects of the war in Ukraine on the beer value chain are fairly limited, as both countries are self-sufficient. But the indirect effects will be massive and add to a situation where inflation was already an issue.

Podcast: Impact of the Ukraine-Russia Conflict on New Zealand Farmers – March 14, 2022
Agriculture analysts Emma Higgins and Genevieve Steven discuss the impact of the war in Ukraine on global markets and potential implications for NZ farmers.

Podcast: What the War in Ukraine Means for Food – March 10, 2022
The latest episode of Consumer Foods-to-Go considers the impact of the war in Ukraine on the food sector. Michael Every, macro strategist for Rabobank, joins the podcast to discuss what might happen in the future, with a decoupled world as a likely scenario.

Russia-Ukraine War's Impact on Global Logistics – March 8, 2022
Global F&A supply chains saw some logistics improvements in early 2022. But the Russia-Ukraine war might have reversed the direction of change. This article considers the immediate consequences and our initial views of the conflict’s impact on global logistics.

War in Europe: is a recession now inevitable? - March 3, 2022
The war in Ukraine has significantly raised the risk of a recession in the Eurozone this year. With its large exposure to key Russian and Ukrainian import goods inflation could rise even faster and amplify a ‘supply shock’ that had already been in the making.

Australia Agribusiness March 2022: Russia-Ukraine Impact on Australia – March 3, 2022
Our monthly commodities report for Australia dives into the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on Australia’s key commodities.

Video Ukraine crisis: key points (Engelstalig) - March 2, 2022
Join Michael Every, Global Strategist Markets at Rabobank, as he discusses the current and future geopolitical environment as a result of the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

Don your armour - Monthly Outlook – March 1, 2022
Putin invaded Ukraine to show the world Russia is the dominant military power in Europe and to rebuild his vision of a Russian sphere. In this Monthly we look at the impact key economies and markets. Obviously the real fight isn’t for central banks, but in the streets of Ukrainian cities.

A Russian cloud over Brazil (Brazil's Set of Macroeconomic Forecasts) – February 25, 2022
With the latest military conflicts in Ukraine, we take the opportunity to share our complete set of macroeconomic forecasts for Brazil for 2022 and 2023. Brazil is little exposed to Russian supply (with the exception of fertilizers) or demand, and we believe the Russian-Ukraine conflict should weigh down on Brazilian activity only indirectly. All this depends on how long-lasting the effects of the conflict are on energy and commodity prices, higher domestic and foreign interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty. 

When Black Sea Wheat Is Caught in Conflict – February 24, 2022
This paper highlights an analogous period when access to Black Sea wheat exports was lost in 1914/15 and assesses the potential impact of the current Russia-Ukraine conflict on wheat markets and prices. This paper does not compare the geopolitical landscape.

Podcast: When Black Sea Wheat Is Caught in Conflict: 1914 vs. Present – February 24, 2022
In October 1914 the world lost all access to Black Sea wheat exports. What happened? Prices rose… a lot. What are the similarities and differences between then and now? Join Agricultural Analyst Dennis Voznesenski and Senior Commodities Analyst Cheryl Kalisch Gordon as they help you navigate the Black Sea crisis.

Podcast: Black Sea Volatility for Grain Markets – February 24, 2022
On this RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness podcast episode, Global Grains & Oilseeds Strategist, Steve Nicholson, talks Senior G&O Analyst Vito Martielli about the tense geopolitical situation in Ukraine, a major exporter to Europe and beyond, and considers its effect on agriculture.

Ukraine War/Sanctions: How We Would Pay for the War? - February 18, 2022
Fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine linger despite recent possible de-escalation. RaboResearch has modelled the macroeconomic impact of three war scenarios. Worryingly, we see a high risk/reward scenario for Russia rather than just downside or for a more violent world order.