RaboResearch - Economic Research

February 9, 2017

Read more on Europe in our dossier 'Europe affects us all'

European integration involves more than simply financial and economic integration. The original purpose of the European cooperation was above all political, and not economic. Nonetheless, the fact that economic considerations are not at the forefront does not mean that they can be ignored without painful consequences. Certainly now, when the European cooperation is up for debate, it is important to carefully weigh all the economic benefits and disadvantages that membership of the European Union entails. Because there is a lot at stake.

Accordingly, we present four potential future scenarios for Europe, each of which has its financial consequences. We try to show in each scenario how the Netherlands will be affected in terms of economic costs and benefits. We hope this will provide a practical basis for a useful debate about the future of the Netherlands and the position it wishes to occupy in Europe. Because one thing is certain: in every scenario, the Netherlands will always be located on the European continent.

Read the chapters of our Europe scenarios via the links below or download the full study in PDF-format.

A struggling Europe in a changing world

Introduction of the scenarios

Scenario 1: Muddling through

Scenario 2: Further European Integration

Scenario 3: European disintegration

Scenario 4: Two-speed Europe

The economic effects

The conclusion

Read more on Europe in our dossier 'Europe affects us all'