RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Uruguay (Update country report)

Uruguay’s economy has continued to grow quickly, although growth has slowed somewhat recently. The deceleration has been welcome, as the economy was close to overheating. The labour market is still very tight.

Special

Financial Crisis Investigation (Special)

The global financial crisis has not reached its final act just yet. But it would still be useful to take a look back and see what we have been through and, more importantly, how we got ourselves in such a mess in the first place.

Economic Comment

Curaçao and Sint Maarten: Frozen credit

Faced with an unsustainable current account deficit and declining international reserves, the Central Bank of Curaçao and Sint Maarten introduced a six month freeze on private credit extension, but more needs to be done.

Economic Report

The Netherlands: deservedly core

In this study we argue that although the budgetary outlook and the current political and economic situation in the Netherlands raise some eyebrows abroad, the fundamentals still point out that the Netherlands belongs to the core of the euro area.

Country Report

South Africa (Country report)

The large group of unemployed youth constitutes an increasing risk for mounting social and political tensions in South Africa. Subdued economic growth as a result of moderate external demand hinder the country in reducing unemployment.

Economic Comment

Egypt: a case of bad timing (Macro Comment)

A clash between the ruling military council and the Muslim Brotherhood, last weekend, threatens Egypt’s fragile economic and political stability, as it could delay a much-needed IMF deal.

Economic Comment

Irish economy still struggling to recover

After an impressive start, the Irish economy fell back into recession in the second half of 2011. With domestic demand expected to fall further and export growth held back by sluggish growth, the economy is expected to show a modest recovery in 2012.

Column

Dagdromen over een Deense hypotheek (Dutch)

Sinds 2009 is de woningmarkt in ons land steeds meer in het slop geraakt. Niet omdat daar een zeepbel zit. In de landen met zeepbellen in de woningmarkt stond het knappen daarvan veelal aan het begin van de recessie.

Economic Comment

UK Budget: another missed opportunity

The Chancellor decided to stick to his guns. This is unfortunate given the weak economic outlook. The private sector is itself busy cleaning its balance sheet and the external environment remains challenging.

Economic Comment

Consument te pessimistisch gestemd (Dutch)

In maart kwam de indicator voor het consumentenvertrouwen uit op –39. Het is echter onterecht dat Nederlandse consumenten zo somber gestemd zijn over de ontwikkelingen van de economie.

Economic Comment

India’s budget wins little applause

The budget for India’s fiscal year 2012/13 aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to 5.1% of GDP from 5.9% of GDP this year. With a rise in tax revenue and a more realistic growth assumption, next year’s budget seems more in reach than this year.

Economic Comment

Turkey: keeping heads cool helps

While Turkey’s industrial production growth is slowing, both inflation and the current account deficit remain elevated, suggesting that the central bank must not ease policy just yet.

Economic Comment

Vietnam: Stay on course (Macro Comment)

After experiencing somewhat of an economic rollercoaster ride in 2011, inflation in Vietnam is finally easing. Nonetheless, Vietnam’s economic situation remains vulnerable and the government should make sure it stays on course.

Economic Report

De diverse opmars van de ZZP’er (Dutch)

ZZP’ers hebben de afgelopen jaren een centrale rol gekregen op de arbeidsmarkt én in het publieke debat. In dit Themabericht proberen we de belangrijkste stuwende krachten achter de sterke groei van het aandeel ZZP’ers in kaart te brengen.

Economic Update

Economic Update France

The sound performance in recent quarters reflects the stability of the French economy. In the eurozone, France functions as a bastion of moderate economic growth. That said, harsh austerity measures will weigh on domestic demand in the coming years.