RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

India: getting inside the head of the RBI

We have developed a two-equation model to forecast India’s interest rate and inflation. Going forward, we expect that both variables will follow an upward trajectory. In our lower bound forecasts, we are even more hawkish than the repo forecasts from a Bloomberg survey among 46 economists.

Economic Comment

Was nun, Mutti? II: Merkel fights for her political future

The breaking down of ‘Jamaica’-coalition talks last night brings unprecedented political uncertainty to Germany. Political initiative and control is moving away from Merkel towards the President, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who can ultimately trigger new elections.

Economic Comment

India: what is the economic impact of the new stimulus package?

The announced stimulus package in October will support the ailing banking sector, but we expect limited additional effects on economic growth of India (of 0.2ppts in fiscal year 2018/2019). Moreover, it is a missed opportunity that the package does not contain measures to foster total factor productivity growth.

Special

Op weg naar een girale wereld? (Dutch)

Wereldwijd proberen beleidsmakers chartaal geld te ontmoedigen, om criminaliteit terug te dringen en ruimte te maken voor het monetaire beleid. Maar voorlopig is het gebruik van chartaal geld nog hardnekkig.