RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Statusupdate ‘dossier Griekenland’ (Dutch)

Met de vier maanden verlenging van het steunpakket is de acute crisis verdwenen. Desondanks blijft het ‘dossier Griekenland’ de komende maanden spelen. Deze Special behandelt de feiten en fabels over Griekenland en de gevaren van een Grexit.

Country Report

Country Report Uruguay

The ruling Frente Amplio won a third term in office and will now have to strike a balance between high spending needs and sound macroeconomic policies while the economy is slowing down.

Country Report

Country Report Argentina

Argentina’s huge macroeconomic imbalances worsened in 2014 and little improvement is expected in 2015, at least not until a new cabinet takes office in December 2015 after the elections.

Country Report

Country Report Australia

Economic growth in Australia is slowing due to lower mining investments and lower prices for its commodities. This also negatively affects the government budget. Meanwhile, private consumption is still backed by the rising house prices.

Country Report

Country Report New Zealand

New Zealand experiences relatively strong, domestic-driven, economic growth. A major risk to the outlook is the current deterioration of the terms-of-trade. Meanwhile, the central bank slowed down the potentially overheating housing market.

Country Report

Country report China

Growth in China is slowing. The housing market adjustment is probably not yet over, while the government may soon allow some trust loan defaults. The anti-corruption campaign has continued.

Country Report

Country Report Vietnam

According to official data economic growth in Vietnam has strengthened over the course of 2014, without any signs of renewed overheating. However, problems in the banking sector remain sizeable, which limits credit growth.

Country Report

Country Report Thailand

Almost a year after its coup, Thailand’s economic growth only recovers gradually amid lingering uncertainty about the future direction of the country. While the imposition of martial law prevents social unrest, the military works on a new constitution to prepare the country for elections in 2016.

Special

Deflatie in de eurozone: zorgelijk of niet? (Dutch)

Vooral door tijdelijke factoren liep de deflatie in de eurozone in januari op tot 0,6%. De lage kerninflatie en dalende inflatieverwachtingen zijn echter wel zorgelijk. Het is de vraag of QE door de ECB een afdoende antwoord biedt op de deflatierisico’s.

Country Report

Country Report Ukraine

Ukraine’s economy shrank considerably last year, due to a conflict in eastern Ukraine and economic mismanagement in the past years. The country’s outlook is highly uncertain and depends on external assistance and on how the conflict evolves.

Column

Europa kiest. Toch? (Dutch)

Januari was in Europa een maand van keuzes. Daar hebben we in Europa een enorme vrijheid in. Maar dat wil niet zeggen dat we daarom ook heldere keuzes maken. En ook niet dat we de keuze-opties voor het kiezen hebben. Zoveel werd afgelopen maand wel weer duidelijk.

Country Report

Country Report Bermuda

Bermuda’s economic performance has been weak in recent years, due to low external demand in the important (re)insurance and tourism sectors. For 2014, the economic outlook seems to have improved.

Special

Wat te verwachten van macroprudentieel beleid? (Dutch)

Macroprudentiële maatregelen staan hoog op de internationale beleidsagenda, maar onzekerheid over de effecten ervan is nog groot. Een juiste timing en balans en realistische verwachtingen over de impact zijn cruciaal bij de invoering.

Country Report

Country Report South Korea

South Korea’s economic momentum has been improving, as on the back of higher consumption and government spending the economy grew by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2014.