RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Brazil

Economic growth in Brazil is likely to fall below 1% in 2014, as both investment and consumption have been weakening. In the second quarter, the economy officially entered a recession. Meanwhile, the October 2014 presidential elections have become very competitive after Marina Silva’s entry to the race.

Country Report

Country Report Sint Maarten

St. Maarten has experienced moderate economic growth in 2013. One of St. Maarten’s challenges remains building up an institutional framework, as it currently lacks the human and financial resources to develop a good functioning administration.

Country Report

Country Report Curaçao

Curaçao had a slightly disappointing economic performance in 2013. However, both Curaçao’s external position and public finances improved. Nevertheless, these remain important weaknesses.

Country Report

Country Report Tunisia

Two political assassinations threw Tunisia in a crisis and hurt economic growth in 2013. In 2014, the political and security environment improved, as a new technocratic government fostered progress on the transition to democracy.

Special

Japanscenario voor de eurozone? (Dutch)

Van verschillende zijden wordt er gesuggereerd dat het risico bestaat dat de eurozone in een ‘Japanscenario’ terechtkomt. Qua economische groei is dit al realiteit. De vraag is dan ook: hoe kan de eurozone zo’n lange economische kwakkelperiode vermijden?

Country Report

Country Report Botswana

As Botswana is heading for elections, more is likely to stay the same. The same party will continue to rule (since 1966), and the country remains overly dependent on diamonds.

Column

Friedrich Hayek, Silvio Gesell en de bitcoin (Dutch)

Friedrich Hayek wordt door velen gezien als de geestelijk vader van de bitcoin. Hayek stelde namelijk in 1975 voor om iedere vorm van overheidsbemoeienis met geld te doorbreken. Zijn remedie: laat commerciële banken hun eigen (papier)geld uitgeven.

Country Report

Country Report Angola

Stagnating oil production lowered economic growth in 2013, highlighting Angola’s dependence on the energy sector. The political scene was dominated by a succession debate.

Country Report

Country Report Uzbekistan

Real GDP growth in Uzbekistan is likely to weaken somewhat in the coming years, but remain sound on the back of high (public) investment growth. Would president Karimov decide to run for another term, political uncertainty will be eased, but only temporarily.

Country Report

Country Report Mongolia

Mongolia’s foreign exchanges reserves have decreased rapidly, as FDI in the mining sector has plunged, while import demand has remained high on the back of loose macroeconomic policies.

Column

Vier alternatieve zienswijzen: een ABCD’tje over groei (Dutch)

Het BBP, meet van alles maar slechts in zeer beperkte mate waar het echt om gaat, in ieder geval voor de westerse wereld. Door óf met veel meer indicatoren te werken óf ons helemaal niet meer druk te maken over economische groei, maar wel over inkomensontwikkeling, vermogensverdeling, werkloosheid, milieu et cetera, kunnen we veel verstandiger beleid voeren.

Economic Comment

Argentina defaults again

This week, Argentina was unable to reach an agreement with the holdout creditors from the 2001 default. In effect, this means that the sovereign has now defaulted on its debt obligations for the second time this century.