RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Thailand

Thailand’s economy grew robustly last year, but concerns about asset bubbles are emerging. Thanks to prime minister Shinawatra’s cautious policies regarding the return of her exiled brother Thaksin, social tensions calmed down, but remain present.

Country Report

Country Report Indonesia

Indonesia has outperformed most countries in the World throughout the crisis on the back of domestic demand. In order to maintain that growth level, and not be faced with increasing inflation, the country will need to seek structural improvements.

Country Report

Country Report Macedonia

Macedonia’s economic and political situation looks challenging, as the country’s economy contracted last year and the passage of this year’s budget resulted in a major political crisis. Meanwhile, EU membership remains a distant prospect.

Economic Comment

Europa naar andere beleidskoers (Dutch)

De Europese Commissie lijkt de beleidsfocus van de lidstaten te willen verschuiven van bezuinigingen en lastenverzwaringen naar structurele hervormingen. Hoewel economisch verstandig, is het de vraag of deze hervormingen kunnen worden afgedwongen.

Country Report

Country Report Israel

Economic growth in Israel is expected to slow in 2013 but pick up in 2014 as gas output increases. The new government has an opportunity to push through reforms. Tensions with Syria and Iran will continue in the forecast period.

Country Report

Country Report Denmark

Growth is hampered by weak external demand and private sector deleveraging. Although the banking sector has come a long way in addressing its weaknesses, challenges remain. Danish public finances are healthy.

Country Report

Country Report Norway

While rising house prices and low interest rates have boosted growth, they have also led to increasing housing market risks amid high household indebtedness. That said, the strong fiscal position mitigates the risks to financial stability.

Country Report

Country Report Sweden

While weak external demand hampers growth, the country has ample space to stimulate domestic demand through expansionary policy. The strong fiscal position also mitigates the downside risks stemming from the private sector.

Country Report

Country Report Belgium

Weaker growth prospects and political hurdles challenge the government’s commitment to fiscal austerity and the implementation of unpopular, yet necessary, reforms. That said, the country’s underlying economic fundamentals remain strong.

Country Report

Country Report Austria

Economic growth slowed down in 2012 and the outlook remains weak for 2013. The fiscal position is relatively strong, but the government has large contingent liabilities due to rising non-performing loans of Austrian banks in the CEE-countries.

Country Report

Country Report Australia

The economy performs well thanks to its strong trade links with China, but with growth being narrowly driven by the mining business. The currency is very strong, which erodes price competitiveness of non-commodity exports.

Country Report

Country Report Germany

Economic growth slowed down in 2012. Going forward, activity is expected to pick up only slowly in 2013. Long-run growth prospects remain weak, caused by the aging population and subdued labour productivity growth in the services sector.

Country Report

Country Report New Zealand

Economic growth slowed down in 2012. Going forward, activity is expected to pick up only slowly in 2013. Long-run growth prospects remain weak, caused by the aging population and subdued labour productivity growth in the services sector.

Country Report

Country Report United Kingdom

UK’s economy has been stagnating since 2010. What the authorities fail to realise is that growth shortfalls are equally credit-negative. The poor economic performance and the resulting downside risks to banks’ asset quality also remain a concern.

Country Report

Country Report United States

The economic recovery is expected to continue this and next year. The brinkmanship in Washington has not resulted in a fiscal crisis yet. Should the debt ceiling not be raised in the Summer, the US government may eventually be forced to default.