RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

The Cyprus bailout program

The Cyprus bailout program presented on Monday 25 March is much better than the proposal presented a week before. A Cypriot euro exit has been averted, but the country will face a difficult and uncertain economic future. 

Economic Quarterly Report

Economisch Kwartaalbericht maart 2013 (Dutch)

De wereldeconomie is sinds het begin van dit jaar in rustiger vaarwater gekomen. Volgens sommigen is daarmee 'het licht aan het eind van de tunnel' in zicht gekomen. Anderen zijn daar minder van overtuigd en stellen dat dit licht afkomstig is van een naderende trein.

Economic Quarterly Report

United Kingdom: growth stagnant, employment up?

UK’s recovery is still very sluggish while the labour market is going from strength to strength. The economic outlook is unlikely to improve materially unless the pace of fiscal consolidation is slowed.

Economic Quarterly Report

Light in the middle of the tunnel

The world has entered calmer waters since the beginning of this year. As such, some are already claiming that they are ‘seeing the light at the end of the tunnel’. We caution that there may still be some tunnel ahead.

Economic Update

Economic Update Brazil

For the Brazilian economy, 2012 has been a very disappointing year, as GDP growth fell to 0.9%. So far, the recovery of the Brazilian economy has been weak, but in recent months some positive developments became visible.

Economic Update

Economic Update Russia

Preliminary data shows that the Russian economy grew by 3.4% y-o-y in 2012. However, this masks the fact that the economy slowed fairly sharply over the course of the year. We expect growth to remain subdued at 3% in 2013.

Economic Report

The eurozone needs an economic fire department

The actions we see when a fire erupts in a building are not unlike those observed during the eurozone crisis. The lesson here is that the eurozone must always have an economic fire department in combination with stronger institutions.

Economic Comment

The impact of Chavez’s death

The death of Hugo Chávez on Tuesday not only creates economic and political uncertainty for Venezuela, but also for some of its neighbours.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld Spanje (Dutch)

Hoewel deels gedreven door eenmalige factoren, intensiveerde de krimp van zowel het BBP als de industriële productie aanzienlijk in 12K4. Positief is dat Spanje vanuit Europa vermoedelijk uitstel van haar begrotingsdoelstellingen krijgt.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld Duitsland (Dutch)

Het BBP kromp in het vierde kwartaal door een uitval van buitenlandse vraag. Een herstel in het eerste kwartaal wordt verwacht, waarbij in 2013 de groei meer binnenlands gedreven zal zijn. Dit wordt ondersteund door een verbetering van het sentiment

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld Italië (Dutch)

In 12K4 is het BBP voor het zesde kwartaal op rij gekrompen. Italiaanse staatsrentes zijn gestegen als gevolg van de beleidsonzekerheid die na de verkiezingen is ontstaan. Mogelijk tast dit ook het broze consumenten- en producentenvertrouwen aan.

Economic Update

Economic Update Germany

GDP contracted in the fourth quarter amid a downturn in foreign demand. We expect a recovery in the first quarter, whereby domestic demand turns into a major growth driver in 2013. This is supported by the recent increase in the sentiment indicators.

Economic Update

Economic Update Emerging Markets

The picture in emerging markets is one of moving forward, but not knowing at what pace or how many bumps there are in the road. We maintain the view that 2013 should be slightly better than 2012, but downside risks remain.

Economic Update

Economic Update Spain

Although due to temporary factors, the contraction of both GDP and industrial production intensified considerably in 12Q4. On a positive note, Spain is expected to get the 'green light' for further postponing its budget deficit target this year.

Economic Update

Economic Update Italy

In 12Q4 GDP shrank for the sixth consecutive quarter. Uncertainty about the policy of the next government has led to increased yields on both government bonds. It may also weaken the fragile consumer and producer sentiment.