RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Russia

The Russian economy has fallen into a recession this year. A fiscal stimulus package to boost economic growth was announced in May, but we do not expect any short-term results. To gain more influence in the CIS region, Russia has resorted to strong-arm tactics.

Country Report

Country Report Egypt

The ouster of president Morsi placed Egypt on a new political transition trajectory – unfortunately, not a more democratic one. Generous assistance from the GCC countries gives Egypt financial breathing space, but economic perspectives remain bleak due to unaddressed structural problems.

Country Report

Country Report Qatar

While the era of double digit economic growth is over, Qatar’s economy is likely to expand by a still robust 5-6% in 2013. Qatar has built a reputation as an international peace broker, but its foreign policy entered choppy waters this year. Fixing this will be one of the challenges for the new emir, Sheikh Tamim.

Country Report

Country Report Mexico

When President Peña Nieto took office in December last year, he promised to deliver growth. The current figures are however disappointing, but, if his reform proposals will be proved in the coming months, Mexico’s outlook will definitely improve.

Special

Some thoughts on Euro T-Bills

This article discusses the ELEC-proposal to introduce Euro T-Bills in the eurozone. It concludes that the design of this scheme has advantages for both strong and weak countries.

Country Report

Country Report Peru

The popularity of Peru’s President Ollanta Humala has fallen strongly in the past year, though he remains more popular than his predecessors three years into their presidency. Meanwhile, Congress has recently implemented an important fiscal reform.

Country Report

Country Report Zambia

Zambia’s reliance on copper exports takes its toll on its external positions, while populist measures and political tensions could make matters worse.

Country Report

Country Report Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia’s economic growth is estimated to slow in 2013, but will pick up in 2014. Concerns about succession risks have diminished this year.

Country Report

Country Report Argentina

As her party is unlikely to obtain a two-thirds majority at the congressional elections of late October, Cristina Kirchner is becoming a lame-duck president. Meanwhile, foreign exchange reserves levels continue to decline.

Country Report

Country Report Panama

Economic growth in Panama is strong due to large infrastructure projects. Whether these projects will boost growth structurally, to an extent that it will outweigh the loss of short-term infrastructural investment-driven growth, remains to be seen.

Column

Waar zit de revolutie van schalie? (Dutch)

Door vernieuwde boortechnieken, waarbij verticaal naar diepte wordt geboord om vervolgens hori¬zontaal verder te boren in schaliegesteente, heeft de winning van schalieolie en schaliegas in Ame¬rika de afgelopen jaren een hoge vlucht genomen.

Country Report

Country Report Algeria

Algeria’s hydrocarbon-based economy is facing rising competition from the recent shale gas boom in the US, but thanks to ample fiscal reserves, the impact on the country has been limited so far. Its social climate will likely remain stable, even if President Bouteflika should be re-elected next year.