RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Bad news from Spain, default still unlikely

A lot of bad news has emanated from Spain over the past couple of weeks. This is likely to keep the pressure on the Spanish government bond market. But we still maintain the view that a sovereign default in Spain is unlikely.

Special

Turkey: Achievements and challenges (Special)

Over the past decade, Turkey broke with its turbulent past, while positioning itself as a regional power. It now enjoys stable public finances and a well-regulated financial sector. But, despite these achievements many challenges remain.

Economic Comment

Eurozone in milde recessie (Macro Comment) (Dutch)

Het eurogebied is volgens de gangbare definitie van twee kwartalen krimp van het BBP net niet terug in recessie. Sentimentindicatoren voor april en de hernieuwde onrust over de Europese schuldencrisis wijzen echter op hernieuwde krimp in 12K2.

Special

Why people rebel: Political risk analysis

The Arab Spring took the world by surprise. In a matter of months, protests spread from Tunisia to almost every country in the Middle East and North Africa. Why do people rebel? What triggers these uprisings? This study looks for answers.

Economic Update

Economic Update Emerging Markets

China’s growth has reached its lowest level since the financial crisis. The Reserve Bank of India cut its policy rate by 50bps. Brazil’s central bank also cut its policy rate.

Economic Update

Economic Update Germany

The PMI manufacturing data in April is pointing to economic contraction in 12Q2. But the other reliable leading indicators suggest the recovery is still on track.

Economic Update

Economic Update Spain

Spain is back in recession. The economy contracted by 0.3% q-o-q in 12Q1 – exactly matching the decline in the previous quarter.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld Duitsland (Dutch)

De vertrouwensindex van industriële inkoopmanagers wijst op economische krimp in 12K2. Andere betrouwbare indicatoren suggereren echter dat het herstel nog steeds standhoudt.

Economic Update

Economic Update Belgium

Recent figures show that the Belgian economy did not experience a recession last year and that 2012 started with growth. Although encouraging, this does not pave the way for solid growth during the course of the year.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld België (Dutch)

Recente cijfers laten zien dat België vorig jaar geen recessie heeft gekend en dat het huidige jaar met groei is begonnen. Hoewel bemoedigend, biedt dit zeker geen garantie voor solide groei in de rest van het jaar.

Economic Comment

Verkiezingen bepalen Europese koers (Dutch)

De impact van de Franse en Griekse verkiezingsuitslag kan nog niet volledig worden overzien. Wel lijkt duidelijk dat de Griekse uitslag de onrust rondom het land en haar schuldhoudbaarheid de komende maanden kan blijven voeden.

Economic Report

Why is the euro crisis not ending? (part 1)

In the first part of this series, we will show that fiscal indiscipline is not at the root of this crisis. This is why the current policy prescription (fiscal austerity) has not been the silver bullet most hoped for.

Economic Report

Why is the euro crisis not ending? (part 2)

In part 2, we propose a number of steps the European policymakers can take in order to end the crisis. All it takes is a little bit of imagination and a lot of willingness.