RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Uruguay (Update country report)

Uruguay’s economy has continued to grow quickly, although growth has slowed somewhat recently. The deceleration has been welcome, as the economy was close to overheating. The labour market is still very tight.

Special

Financial Crisis Investigation (Special)

The global financial crisis has not reached its final act just yet. But it would still be useful to take a look back and see what we have been through and, more importantly, how we got ourselves in such a mess in the first place.

Economic Comment

Curaçao and Sint Maarten: Frozen credit

Faced with an unsustainable current account deficit and declining international reserves, the Central Bank of Curaçao and Sint Maarten introduced a six month freeze on private credit extension, but more needs to be done.

Country Report

South Africa (Country report)

The large group of unemployed youth constitutes an increasing risk for mounting social and political tensions in South Africa. Subdued economic growth as a result of moderate external demand hinder the country in reducing unemployment.

Economic Comment

Egypt: a case of bad timing (Macro Comment)

A clash between the ruling military council and the Muslim Brotherhood, last weekend, threatens Egypt’s fragile economic and political stability, as it could delay a much-needed IMF deal.

Economic Comment

Irish economy still struggling to recover

After an impressive start, the Irish economy fell back into recession in the second half of 2011. With domestic demand expected to fall further and export growth held back by sluggish growth, the economy is expected to show a modest recovery in 2012.

Economic Comment

UK Budget: another missed opportunity

The Chancellor decided to stick to his guns. This is unfortunate given the weak economic outlook. The private sector is itself busy cleaning its balance sheet and the external environment remains challenging.

Economic Comment

India’s budget wins little applause

The budget for India’s fiscal year 2012/13 aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to 5.1% of GDP from 5.9% of GDP this year. With a rise in tax revenue and a more realistic growth assumption, next year’s budget seems more in reach than this year.

Economic Comment

Turkey: keeping heads cool helps

While Turkey’s industrial production growth is slowing, both inflation and the current account deficit remain elevated, suggesting that the central bank must not ease policy just yet.

Economic Comment

Vietnam: Stay on course (Macro Comment)

After experiencing somewhat of an economic rollercoaster ride in 2011, inflation in Vietnam is finally easing. Nonetheless, Vietnam’s economic situation remains vulnerable and the government should make sure it stays on course.

Economic Update

Economic Update France

The sound performance in recent quarters reflects the stability of the French economy. In the eurozone, France functions as a bastion of moderate economic growth. That said, harsh austerity measures will weigh on domestic demand in the coming years.

Economic Quarterly Report

Economisch Kwartaalbericht (integrale versie) (Dutch)

Snel ingrijpen in de overheidsfinanciën door extra te bezuinigen zal de economie die al in een nieuwe recessie verkeert onnodig schade toebrengen. Hoe langer deze hervormingen op zich laten wachten, hoe groter de kosten zijn voor de samenleving.

Economic Quarterly Report

Blik op de wereld (Focus Ec.Kwartaalbericht) (Dutch)

De wereldeconomie presteert momenteel beter dan enkele maanden geleden werd gevreesd. Maar er zijn nog steeds obstakels die het herstel kunnen belemmeren. De risico’s kunnen worden beperkt door budgettaire en monetaire beleidsmaatregelen.

Economic Quarterly Report

Global Economic Outlook: Cautious optimism?

The global economy is performing better than most feared. But there are still many headwinds that can choke the recovery. The good news is that the downside risks may be mitigated by adequate fiscal and monetary policy measures.

Economic Update

Economic Update Emerging Markets

The emerging markets are almost all losing their growth momentum. Even China, which has been the light at the end of the tunnel for a couple of years, is now reducing its growth target to below 8%.