Economic Comment Dutch version
Around the world, support for economic integration is fading. The imminent ‘Brexit’ is the first serious manifestation of European disintegration. Yet there is not enough attention to the economic effects of the dismantling of European cooperation.
Economic Comment Dutch version
The future of political and economic integration in Europe is still unknown. That is why we have defined four future scenarios for Europe. These are: ‘muddling through’, ‘further integration’, ‘disintegration’ and ‘two-speed’.
Economic Report Dutch version
The EU and the eurozone continue to exist, but cooperation between Member States becomes increasingly difficult. Problems are repeatedly addressed with half measures, creating new unrest and crises, whilst popular dissatisfaction continues to grow.
Economic Report Dutch version
Cooperation between the Member States improves and European integration progresses in important areas. Problems occurring are effectively and collectively addressed. Economic growth picks up and unemployment declines sharply.
Economic Report Dutch version
Cooperation between the Member States deteriorates and collective problems cannot be adequately addressed. An economic crisis ensues and unemployment rises sharply. Eventually, the eurozone disintegrates first, and the break-up of the EU follows.
Economic Report Dutch version
The Member States decide amicably to change the composition of the Eurozone. Some countries leave in a process controlled by the ECB, but retain access to the Single Market. The remaining countries intensify their cooperation and form a ‘core union’.
Economic Report Dutch version
If the Single Market falls apart, the effect for the Netherlands will be disproportionate. The key economic transmission channels are: foreign trade, exchange rates, the pension funds and presence of foreign companies in the Netherlands.