RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2016: Global Economy

Global growth holds up in 2016, but does not accelerate. With the US poised to hike interest rates, the rest of the world waits anxiously. Normalization of monetary policy poses economic risks, but so does keeping it too loose for too long.

Economic Comment

Turkey: surprise landslide victory ensures AKP single-party rule

The AKP’s surprise victory at Turkey’s snap elections restores political stability, but the new cabinet needs to embark on structural reforms and boost central bank independency to uphold investor confidence amid elevated balance-of-payments risks.

Economic Report

Turkije: hoogste tijd voor een nieuwe regering (Dutch)

De verkiezingen van 1 november zullen meer duidelijkheid geven over de toekomstige politieke ontwikkelingen in Turkije, maar een einde van de instabiliteit lijkt niet in zicht. Hierdoor blijft het land buitengewoon kwetsbaar voor abrupte kapitaaluitstroom.

Country Report

Country Report Russia

Russia’s economy is forecasted to shrink by around 4% in 2015, on the back of lower oil prices and imposed sanctions. The outlook also remains bleak due to low investor confidence and a tightening of the government’s control over the country.

Country Report

Country Report Ukraine

Due to the conflict, Ukraine’s economy has shrunk considerably, which also manifests economic mismanagement of the past years. The country’s outlook remains highly uncertain as the government hasn’t managed to set the economy on the right course yet.

Country Report

Country Report Hungary

Over 2014 Hungary's economic growth increased to 3% thanks to a surge of EU-funds, the central bank’s “Lending for Growth” scheme, a peak in (car) industry investments, a good harvest and low inflation. For 2015 an economic growth of about 2.5% and a budget deficit below 3% is expected. Concerns remain about the continuation of unorthodox economic policies.

Country Report

Country Report Bulgaria

Growth in Bulgaria remains weak and fiscal balances have been deteriorating, though from a low base. The banking sector has weathered last year’s crisis well, but further measures are necessary to improve its resilience in the future