RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Slovenia

Slovenia has taken further steps to tackle its banking crisis, but progress has been delayed by an extensive asset quality review that is yet to reveal the true scale of the problem. Depending on the outcome, an EU-led bailout may be needed soon.

Country Report

Country Report Russia

The Russian economy has fallen into a recession this year. A fiscal stimulus package to boost economic growth was announced in May, but we do not expect any short-term results. To gain more influence in the CIS region, Russia has resorted to strong-arm tactics.

Country Report

Country Report Lithuania

Following successful internal devaluation and economic rebalancing, Lithuania currently ranks among the EU’s fastest-growing members. Its new government remains committed to fiscal consolidation in order to qualify for euro accession by 2015.

Country Report

Country Report Poland

Benefitting from firming external demand, Poland’s economy gradually turns the corner and its external position improves. Yet, weaker growth left its mark on public finances, forcing the government to take steps to avoid mandatory spending cuts.

Economic Report

The Russian Crisis 1998

Russia’s fixed exchange rate regime together with its fragile fiscal position appeared to be unsustainable in the course of 1998. By then an outbreak of a severe banking, currency and sovereign debt crisis could not be prevented.

Economic Update

Economic Update Russia

Russia’s economic growth has continued to slow this year and we expect 2.2% growth in 2013. The central bank is likely to loosen monetary policy amid falling inflation. The government’s stimulus measures are justifiable, but no effect is expected in the very short term.

Economic Update

Emerging markets – US tapering has a big impact

US tapering is leading to portfolio outflows in emerging markets, especially in countries that are running both a current account and budget balance deficit.

Country Report

Country Report Turkey

Turkey’s large current account deficit and its small stock of foreign reserves make it vulnerable to the effects of tapering by the US Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, there have also been several important political developments.

Country Report

Country Report Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia’s economy is recovering slightly with the help of IMF support and real GDP growth is expected to be positive again in 2013. However, Croatia’s EU accession and the lack of structural reforms negatively affect Bosnia’s economic outlook.

Country Report

Country Report Uzbekistan

Economic growth in Uzbekistan is expected to remain strong in coming years. Political tensions have increased over the lingering uncertainty concerning the succession of President Karimov.

Economic Update

Russia: Slowdown continues, stimulus expected

The most recent data shows that economic growth in Russia continues to slow down. There have been talks of a fiscal stimulus package, which is feasible given Russia’s healthy public finances. However, it is not without risks in the long term.

Country Report

Country Report Macedonia

Macedonia’s economic and political situation looks challenging, as the country’s economy contracted last year and the passage of this year’s budget resulted in a major political crisis. Meanwhile, EU membership remains a distant prospect.

Country Report

Country Report Estonia

Estonia’s economic growth will moderate this year. As a result, inflationary pressures will remain subdued. Estonia’s contribution to the ESM implies a significant liability. Furthermore, the country’s external position is fragile.

Country Report

Country Report Russia

Economic growth in Russia is falling to a lower longer-term trend growth of 3-4%. While domestic political stability has been restored, underlying tensions remain. Tensions with the EU have recently risen but are unlikely to escalate.