RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Slovenia (Country Update)

Slovenia is currently experiencing a double-dip recession as a result of fiscal consolidation and banking sector problems. Implementation of the necessary reform plans is still at risk, as pressure from the public and trade unions remains high.

Special

Outlook 2013: Russia and CIS

The outlook for economic growth in Russia and the CIS region for 2013 is mostly unchanged from our 2012 estimates. We discuss the economic policy options to boost economic growth next year. However the uncertain global economic backdrop poses a risk.

Country Report

Russia (Country Report)

The social unrest which marred Putin's presidency has not escalated, due to the government's fierce crackdown on opposition protests. Economic growth is forecast at a moderate 3.8% in 2012 and 3.9% in 2013.

Country Report

Turkey (Country Update)

Turkey's economy appears to be headed for a soft-landing, after nearly overheating in 2011. While domestic demand growth came to a halt, exports took over as the main driver of growth. For 2012, we expect growth to come in at roughly 3%.

Economic Update

Economic Update Emerging Markets

Several emerging markets continue to experience a slowdown in growth. Growth in 12Q2 went down in both Russia and Turkey, while growth in China is likely to slow down further in Q3 as well. Meanwhile, industrial production in Mexico remained strong.

Country Report

Hungary (Country Report)

Hungary's economic situation leaves much to be desired. After contracting by nearly 7% in 2009, the economy grew by less than 2% in the subsequent years, only to fall back into recession at the start of 2012.

Country Report

Uzbekistan (Country report)

Uzbekistan's political situation is stable, but only as it is ruled in an authoritarian manner by President Karimov. The social situation is troublesome, since economic, religious and press freedom are strictly limited and corruption continues.

Country Report

Poland (Country report)

Growth in Poland is expected to be 2-3% for 2012. But an escalation of eurozone problems will affect Poland. While the internal market will provide some cushion, the room for stimulus measures is smaller than during the last crisis.

Country Report

Bosnia and Herzegovina (Country Report)

Bosnia and Herzegovina's economic performance remains very weak amid a challenging external environment, while the country's intricate ethnically-based administrative structures prevent a major improvement of the poor business climate.

Country Report

Russia (Country report)

De terugkeer van Vladimir Putin als president wordt gekenmerkt door controverse en massale straatprotesten. Ondertussen zal de economie met 3.7% groeien in 2012, maar blijft het te afhankelijk van de olie- en gassector.

Country Report

Country Update Macedonia

Macedonia is a small, Balkan country, which aims to become a EU candidate next year or so. Its external position is weak and unemployment is a huge issue. Remittances are the lifeline of the country, which, unfortunately, partly come from Greece.

Special

Turkey: Achievements and challenges (Special)

Over the past decade, Turkey broke with its turbulent past, while positioning itself as a regional power. It now enjoys stable public finances and a well-regulated financial sector. But, despite these achievements many challenges remain.

Country Report

Croatia (Country report)

After two years of GDP contraction, Croatia’s economy stagnated in 2011, growing by a meager 0.2%. For 2012, the situation in the eurozone, Croatia’s main export market, and sluggish domestic demand are expected to result in another recession.

Country Report

Estonia (Country report)

Estonia made a swift recovery from the global crisis and its own real estate crisis that shook the economy in 2009. In 2011, the economy grew by 7.5%. The ongoing turmoil in the eurozone is expected to affect Estonia’s small and open economy.

Country Report

Poland (Country report)

After growing strongly with 4.3% in 2011, the economy of Poland is expected to slow to a still respectable 2-3% in 2012. Considering the sovereign-debt-sensitive market is continuation of current fiscal consolidation important.