RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Bulgaria: growth recovering, but challenges ahead

After a mild recovery of the fiscal balance in 2015, the challenge for Bulgaria lies in continuation of prudent policy to enable stable future growth and ensure stable levels of public debt.

Country Report

Croatia: successful reforms much needed but unlikely

Croatia’s short term outlook has improved on the back of higher private consumption, investment and exports. Unfortunately, chances of successful structural and fiscal reforms by the new government are dim, due to its small and likely unstable majority.

Country Report

Hungary: Stable growth, but government policies remain unorthodox

Economic growth in 2015 has been robust thanks to the usage of EU-funds and strong external demand. The fiscal situation improved, although with controversial measures. In general, the government maintained its populist and nationalist policies.

Country Report

Turkey: ongoing political instabiliy

Turkey’s economy expanded by 4% last year, but Russian sanctions and weaker tourist arrivals will negatively affect growth this year. In spite of the AKP’s regained parliamentary majority, Turkey’s political situation remains volatile which could once more weigh on essential foreign capital inflows.

Country Report

Country Report Russia

Russia’s economy is forecasted to shrink by around 4% in 2015, on the back of lower oil prices and imposed sanctions. The outlook also remains bleak due to low investor confidence and a tightening of the government’s control over the country.

Country Report

Country Report Ukraine

Due to the conflict, Ukraine’s economy has shrunk considerably, which also manifests economic mismanagement of the past years. The country’s outlook remains highly uncertain as the government hasn’t managed to set the economy on the right course yet.

Country Report

Country Report Hungary

Over 2014 Hungary's economic growth increased to 3% thanks to a surge of EU-funds, the central bank’s “Lending for Growth” scheme, a peak in (car) industry investments, a good harvest and low inflation. For 2015 an economic growth of about 2.5% and a budget deficit below 3% is expected. Concerns remain about the continuation of unorthodox economic policies.

Country Report

Country Report Bulgaria

Growth in Bulgaria remains weak and fiscal balances have been deteriorating, though from a low base. The banking sector has weathered last year’s crisis well, but further measures are necessary to improve its resilience in the future

Country Report

Country Report Poland

Poland embarked on a broad-based economic recovery, as growth rose from 1.6% in 2013 to 3.3% last year. Large amounts of CHF-denominated mortgages should not derail the recovery, while upcoming elections are unlikely to lead to major policy changes.

Country Report

Country Report Turkey

Political pressure on the central bank ahead of parliamentary elections contributed to a strong depreciation of the Turkish lira. Concerns about a possible executive presidency after elections and more populist economic policies unnerve investors.

Country Report

Country Report Ukraine

Ukraine’s economy shrank considerably last year, due to a conflict in eastern Ukraine and economic mismanagement in the past years. The country’s outlook is highly uncertain and depends on external assistance and on how the conflict evolves.

Country Report

Country Report Bulgaria

Bulgaria’s economic and political situation remains tense, as yet another government stepped down, the local financial system was shaken by organised bank runs, and bilateral relations with Russia soured markedly due to the halt of construction of the South Stream pipeline.

Country Report

Country Report Russia

Russia’s economy is slowing down as a result of western sanctions and a drop in oil prices. Its outlook has also deteriorated due to lower investor confidence and a strengthening of the government’s control over the country.

Country Report

Country Report Turkey

While Turkey’s economic growth started to slow in the second quarter, the central bank faces pressure to reverse its major January interest rate hike ahead of the 2015 parliamentary elections. As expected, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan became Turkey’s first directly-elected president.

Country Report

Country Report Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia-Herzegovina faces major socioeconomic challenges in the aftermath of devastating floods and months of violent protests. The upcoming general elections in October are unlikely to improve the situation, but increased IMF support should alleviate possible financial problems.