RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

The defence spending gap in the EU

The EU is temporarily exempted from the steel and aluminium tariffs in the US. While seeking permanent exemption, it might be difficult for the EU to increase defence spending to the satisfaction of the US, due to the possibly massive costs involved.

Special

Is a US trade war imminent?

Trump’s protectionist steel decision increases the risk of a trade war. But a full scale trade war would hurt the US economy even more than China and the EU.

Special

Why Trump’s protectionist trade agenda fails

So far, Trump has failed to implement much of his protectionist trade agenda. We discuss five reasons why we believe Trump will not implement a full-fletched package of protectionist measures. If Trump does resort to protectionism, US GDP could face losses up to -3.1 percentage points in 2018.

Special Dutch version

Trump’s impact on the economy

As of January 20, Donald J. Trump is President of the United States. In this Special we sketch the changes in economic policy that we should expect in the coming years, in particular in the areas of fiscal stimulus, trade policy, and energy policy. We also look at effects on US public debt sustainability, and market implications.