RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Spain elections: Third time’s a charm, right?

Spain will hold early elections on 28 April. The short-term economic impact will be limited, but public finances will be worse off in 2019. The longer-term impact is difficult to assess based on current polls, but it could well be positive.

Column Dutch version

Structural confusion

Assessing US tax cuts, Italian public spending, and Fed or ECB policy all require a distinction between the 'cyclical' and 'structural'. But even when you who know the difference, it is easy to make a policy mistake.

Special

Nowcasting the Indian economy

In this Special we present our new nowcasting methodology for the Indian economy. Our combined model predicts an economic growth for calendar 2018Q4 of 6.3%, which would imply a significant slowdown of economic activity after the already disappointing GDP print of 7.1% in Q3.

Economic Comment

Japan: Economic recovery on the cards?

We expect the Japanese economy to recover moderately in the fourth quarter of 2018, and this will continue in the first quarter of 2019, but we do not foresee any surprises from the central bank in terms of policy changes. Inflation has not picked up yet, and risks remain tilted to the downside.

Economic Report

India: 2019 Economic Outlook

In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.

Special

The US recession of 2020

The recent flattening of US treasury yield curve has activated our early warning system. Our model now gives a 69% chance of a recession by May 2020 and is increasingly pointing at 2020 as the year of the next recession.