RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Eurozone (debt) crisis: Country Profile Ireland

The build-up of large private sector imbalances related to a housing boom and the financial sector were the prime cause of the crisis. Ireland has successfully reformed its banking sector and economic performance is strong, but challenges remain.

Economic Comment

Eurozone (debt) crisis: Country Profile Portugal

Both high private and public sector debt prior to the crisis are to blame for the country’s deep recession and public debt crisis. It remains to be seen whether Portugal’s low growth problem has been addressed, with unemployment and indebtedness still very high.

Economic Comment

Eurozone (debt) crisis: Country Profile Italy

Public sector debt was already very high and economic growth very weak in the years prior to the crisis. Private sector debt was and still is relatively low. Despite recent structural reforms, the economic outlook remains rather weak and unemployment and public debt high.

Country Report

Russia: bottoming out?

Russia’s economy might be finally bottoming out after recording a 5% yoy contraction in 2Q15, the sharpest in six years. However the growth outlook remains bleak due to structurally lower oil prices, existing sanctions and lack of structural reforms.

Country Report

Kenya: climbing economy, sliding currency

Kenya’s economy continues to grow strongly, but the depreciating currency poses short term risks for inflation and debt service. In the medium term, elections in 2018 could give rise to increased ethnic tensions and result in civil unrest.

Economic Comment

Bloeiende wereldhandelsgroei niet langer een zekerheid (Dutch)

De wereldhandelsgroei blijft al vijf jaar achter bij de economische groei. Deze trend wordt deels gevoed door handelsbelemmeringen die op termijn ook de economische activiteit kunnen remmen en dus is beleidsingrijpen vereist.

Country Report

South Africa: exacerbating structural problems

South Africa’s growth outlook is held back by low investor confidence and structural weaknesses in areas such as infrastructure, labour and competition. Neither of these are likely to be addressed in the current financial and political climate.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2016: Financial Markets

While there will be a devaluation of the Chinese renminbi, the dollar will also become stronger more generally in 2016, due in part to the Fed’s interest rate increases. The ECB is more likely to do the opposite, which will weaken the euro/dollar currency pair further still. Slightly higher capital market rates can be expected though.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2016: Global Economy

Global growth holds up in 2016, but does not accelerate. With the US poised to hike interest rates, the rest of the world waits anxiously. Normalization of monetary policy poses economic risks, but so does keeping it too loose for too long.

Column Dutch version

Outlook 2016: green surrounded by orange

In an international climate where so many indicators are orange, we should count our blessings for now that the Netherlands is set to be a green oasis both this year and next. Things have looked rather different in recent years.