RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

Italy: once in recession, always in recession?

In 14Q3, GDP volume contracted with 0.1% q-o-q. Investment acted as the largest drag on growth. In 2015, GDP volume is expected to grow slowly after three years of contraction, mostly on the back of foreign demand. Unemployment will remain high.

Economic Update

Belgium: softening domestic demand in 2015

Economic growth in the third quarter of 2014 was 0.3% q-o-q and was mainly supported by private investments and private consumption. Looking forward, domestic demand growth is likely to soften.

Economic Update

Spain: investment is back, consumption is up

Spain’s economic recovery has strengthened in the third quarter, mainly due to growth in consumption and investment. This also improves next year’s growth outlook. Meanwhile, the external rebalancing is in full swing and government finances are improving.

Economic Update

France: at last, economic growth

Real GDP growth in France increased by 0.3% q-o-q in the third quarter of 2014. We expect private consumption to keep growing and act as the main driver of growth in 2015.

Economic Comment

Wereldeconomisch commentaar: de eurozone op weg naar deflatie? (Dutch)

In de afgelopen weken is de olieprijs fors gedaald. Mocht deze voor langere tijd laag blijven, dan is dit een positieve impuls voor de wereldeconomie. Een neveneffect is dat de kans op tijdelijke deflatie in de eurozone aanzienlijk is toegenomen.

Economic Comment

‘Father Christmas’ in het Europees Parlement (Dutch)

Op 26 november presenteerde EC-president een nieuw fonds dat de komende jaren € 315 miljard aan investeringen mogelijk moet maken. Het blijft echter maar de vraag of het fonds een netto effect zal hebben en op de korte termijn zal er geen effect zijn.