RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

Italy: The road to Rome is still very long

The Italian economy stayed in recession in 13Q2. Sentiment is improving, but domestic demand will be too weak to support growth in the coming quarters. Meanwhile, political turmoil is making markets nervous, which further hampers the recovery.

Economic Update

Brazil: Growth accelerates, but new slowdown likely

Brazil’s economy grew surprisingly fast in 13Q2. In particular, the strong investment growth realised is highly welcome. However, we expect growth to slow down in the second part of 2013.

Economic Update

India: Battered but not beaten

Tapering talk has sent the Indian rupee to record lows, but India is not a blameless victim. It struggles with fundamental issues constraining economic growth, large twin deficits and declining investor confidence on the back of inadequate reforms.

Economic Update

Economic Update Russia

Russia’s economic growth has continued to slow this year and we expect 2.2% growth in 2013. The central bank is likely to loosen monetary policy amid falling inflation. The government’s stimulus measures are justifiable, but no effect is expected in the very short term.

Economic Update

France: A jobless recovery

A strong GDP figure in 13Q2 and rising sentiment levels show that economic conditions are improving. That said, the GDP figure was boosted by temporary factors while the rigid labour market does not show any signs of recovery yet.

Economic Update

Spain: Adios recesión?

A better than expected GDP figure for 13Q2 and rising sentiment levels suggest that economic conditions are improving. That said, a quick housing market and labour market recovery is not on the cards yet.

Economic Update

Emerging markets – US tapering has a big impact

US tapering is leading to portfolio outflows in emerging markets, especially in countries that are running both a current account and budget balance deficit.

Economic Update

Germany: Still going strong

Second quarter economic growth in Germany was broad-based. Given the current readings of both the producer and consumer confidence, the economy is expected to continue growing in the coming quarters.

Economic Quarterly Report

Has the world turned upside down?

The emerging markets are facing some headwinds. Slower growth in China together with the ‘taper’ talk in the US is weighing on economic activity.

Economic Quarterly Report

Finally some tailwinds

There are signs that UK’s economic activity is gathering momentum. But the recovery is not on a solid footing yet and, therefore, needs to be nurtured. Should ‘forward guidance’ not succeed to stem the tightening of financial condi-tions, more QE will probably be reconsidered as an option, especially because the government will not opt for a slower pace of fiscal austerity.

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Scorebordjournalistiek (Dutch)

"Ongenuanceerde vorm van sportjournalistiek, waarbij alleen naar de uiteindelijke (hoge) uitslag wordt gekeken en niet naar het vertoonde spel en de feitelijke krachtsverhoudingen tijdens de wedstrijd" Encyclo, Online Encyclopedie