RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Germany and further EU integration

Elections in Germany in 2013 might result in a stable and EU-friendly grand coalition. However, recent appeals against the ESM ratification suggest that politicians will be constrained by legal boundaries regarding further EU integration.

Economic Comment

German deliberations on the ESM

On July 10, the German Constitutional Court holds the first hearing regarding appeals against the ESM, the fiscal compact and an amendment to Article 136 TFEU, which legally anchors a stability mechanism in the Treaty.

Economic Comment

United Kingdom: Opening the monetary spigots

The UK monetary authorities have come up with new credit easing and quantitative easing measures to jump-start the ailing economy. We continue to remain unconvinced that these measures will materially alter the economic outlook.

Economic Update

Economic Update Emerging Markets

This month’s economic data from emerging markets is rather mixed. While first-quarter economic growth in Mexico and the Philippines surprised to the upside, Brazil’s economy continues to slow down. Argentina might soon face challenging times.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld Spanje (Dutch)

Na twee kwartalen van 0,3% k-o-k krimp is de daling van het Spaanse BBP in het tweede kwartaal van 2012 waarschijnlijk versneld. Zorgelijk is dat de overheid er tot en met mei niet in is geslaagd het begrotingstekort terug te dringen.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld Duitsland (Dutch)

Het BBP groeide met 0,5% k-o-k in 12K1. De groei zal in 12K2 beduidend lager zijn. Ook een kleine BBP krimp kan niet worden uitgesloten. De werkloosheid steeg in juni voor de derde maand op rij.

Economic Update

Economic Update Belgium

After the better than expected GDP figure in 12Q1 a new slow down seems unavoidable. We anticipate a contraction of GDP in 12Q2. If the economic weakness lasts, we believe also the labour market cannot remain out of harm's way.

Economic Update

Economic Update Germany

GDP increased by 0.5% q-o-q in 12Q1. Activity is likely to be far weaker in Q2. Even a minor contraction in GDP cannot be excluded. Unemployment rose for the third month in a row in June.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld België (Dutch)

Na het beter dan verwachte eerste kwartaal van het jaar lijkt een nieuwe terugslag onafwendbaar. Op basis van het verslechterde sentiment en teleurstellende cijfers, houden wij rekening met een krimp van het BBP in 12K2.

Economic Update

Economic Update Spain

Following two quarters of a 0.3% q-o-q GDP contraction, the decline in economic activity probably acce-lerated in 12Q2. The fact that the government has been unable to reduce the budget deficit up until May is worrying.