RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Bad news from Spain, default still unlikely

A lot of bad news has emanated from Spain over the past couple of weeks. This is likely to keep the pressure on the Spanish government bond market. But we still maintain the view that a sovereign default in Spain is unlikely.

Economic Comment

Eurozone in milde recessie (Macro Comment) (Dutch)

Het eurogebied is volgens de gangbare definitie van twee kwartalen krimp van het BBP net niet terug in recessie. Sentimentindicatoren voor april en de hernieuwde onrust over de Europese schuldencrisis wijzen echter op hernieuwde krimp in 12K2.

Economic Update

Economic Update Emerging Markets

China’s growth has reached its lowest level since the financial crisis. The Reserve Bank of India cut its policy rate by 50bps. Brazil’s central bank also cut its policy rate.

Economic Update

Economic Update Germany

The PMI manufacturing data in April is pointing to economic contraction in 12Q2. But the other reliable leading indicators suggest the recovery is still on track.

Economic Update

Economic Update Spain

Spain is back in recession. The economy contracted by 0.3% q-o-q in 12Q1 – exactly matching the decline in the previous quarter.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld Duitsland (Dutch)

De vertrouwensindex van industriële inkoopmanagers wijst op economische krimp in 12K2. Andere betrouwbare indicatoren suggereren echter dat het herstel nog steeds standhoudt.

Economic Update

Economic Update Belgium

Recent figures show that the Belgian economy did not experience a recession last year and that 2012 started with growth. Although encouraging, this does not pave the way for solid growth during the course of the year.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld België (Dutch)

Recente cijfers laten zien dat België vorig jaar geen recessie heeft gekend en dat het huidige jaar met groei is begonnen. Hoewel bemoedigend, biedt dit zeker geen garantie voor solide groei in de rest van het jaar.