RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update Dutch version

Country Update Belgium

Almost one-and-a-half year after the elections there has finally been a political breakthrough. With the announcement of harsh austerity measures in 2012 the new government hopes to reduce the budget deficit and thereby to regain market trust.

Economic Update Dutch version

Country Update Germany

Germany’s 11Q3 growth (+0.5% q-o-q) testifies to the country’s economic resilience. Private consumption was the biggest contributor to GDP growth, partly due to the disappointing performance in 11Q2.

Economic Update Dutch version

Country Update Italy

The Prime Minister of Italy, Mario Monti, faces the difficult task of lowering the budget deficit and enacting structural reforms while the economy is falling back into recession. Under the motto Save Italy, the first set of measures has been passed.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update United Kingdom

The much-awaited QE2 was finally launched in October after Adam Posen, the arch-dove MPC member, convinced everyone to get on board. The programme does not seem to be a success though. Growth in 11Q3 (0.5%) was in line with expectations.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update France

Based on persistent weak sentiment we lowered our growth forecast for 11H2. We believe the uncertainty surrounding the European debt crisis will weigh on France’s economic activity going forward.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update Spain

The available production-, sales- and sentiment indicators for the third quarter of the year point to slowing economic growth. Employment took a bit hit, which pushed up the seasonally adjusted unemployment count to over 5 million people.

Economic Update Dutch version

Country Update Italy

In the second quarter, the Italian economy managed to realise a modest acceleration in growth. But both industrial production and sentiment indicators point to a new recession in the second half of the year.

Economic Update Dutch version

Country Update Germany

Germany’s growth in 11Q2 was nothing short of disappointing, especially given the sharp contraction in consumption amid improvement in the labour market. It seems to us that waiting for German consumers to spend more is like waiting for Godot.

Economic Update Dutch version

Country Update Belgium

After relatively good performance in the past quarters, the European debt crisis seems to weigh on the Belgian economy. The sentiment of both consumers and producers dropped sharply since August. The yield on 10-year government bonds dropped to 3.7%.

Economic Update Dutch version

Country Update United Kingdom

The 0.2% q-o-q growth in 11Q2 is blamed on a host of ‘special factors’. But this is absurd, in our view. The lackluster post-recession recovery suggests the harsh austerity measures have been very ill-timed.