RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

Weak economic recovery in 2011 not entirely unexpected

During the past year we witnessed a lacklustre economic recovery. And the outlook for 2011 does not look much better. This may be disappointing, yet considering the severity of the recession, it is not altogether surprising. In the United States, as well as in a number of European countries, consumers were living beyond their means for years.

Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

Outlook 2011

Extremely disappointing, yet not unexpected. This is how our economists describe the continuation of this year’s sluggish economic recovery in the year ahead in our Outlook 2011. We are still climbing out of the deepest recession since the 1930s. While the world economic activity picked up somewhat last year, the recovery is far from robust and the prospect of fully returning to global prosperity is still a long way off.

Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

Global economic challenges in 2011 and beyond

The recent global economic slowdown has made clear once again that the battered Western consumers, especially in the US and the UK, are no longer able to thrust the global economy forward while they are busy repairing their balance sheets.

Economic Report

UK: to QE or not to QE?

The pace of economic recovery is slowing before the fiscal squeeze has kicked in. But the BoE is hesitant to launch QE2 given the higherthan expected inflation (expectations). There are definitely short-term upside risks to inflation, mostly due to the VAT hike in January 2011.

Economic Report

Public debt: nothing to fear but fear itself

Investors are worried that rising public debt to GDP ratios in the advanced economies will eventually lead to a wave of sovereign defaults. To calm market nerves, therefore, governments have announced austerity measures to lower debt ratios to more ‘sustainable levels’.

Economic Comment

Demystifying the German labour market

The astonishing resilience of the German labour market has caught everyone by surprise. But this is mostly due to the government’s short-shift scheme and creative statistics. The question is, therefore, will the labour market deteriorate in 2010?

Column

Domme dingen en de drachme (Dutch)

De economische casus voor het bijeenhouden van de eurozone is ijzersterk, maar in het huidige tijdsgewricht weet je het maar nooit. Het idee om de euro maar weer op te heffen is helaas nog springlevend.

Economic Report

Deflation, here we come?

Deflationary risks are rising in the advanced economies. This has made some worry that a Japan-style deflationary episode is awaiting us. In our view, these particular concerns are exaggerated.

Special

Breaking up the eurozone

This paper deals with the question whether or not it is a good idea to break up the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU or eurozone).

Economic Report

Sterke Europese cooperatieve banken (Dutch)

De financiële perikelen voor landen en banken zijn nog niet voorbij. Wel is nu duidelijk dat Europese coöperatieve banken de initiële kredietcrisis van 2007-2008 relatief goed hebben doorstaan.