RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

“As good as it gets” (Dutch)

De kans dat de wereldeconomie harder gaat groeien dan nu het geval is lijkt gering, aangezien vele grote economieën op hun economisch potentieel zitten. Deze is aangetast door jaren van bovenmatige liquiditeit.

Country Report

Bulgaria: growth recovering, but challenges ahead

After a mild recovery of the fiscal balance in 2015, the challenge for Bulgaria lies in continuation of prudent policy to enable stable future growth and ensure stable levels of public debt.

Country Report

Croatia: successful reforms much needed but unlikely

Croatia’s short term outlook has improved on the back of higher private consumption, investment and exports. Unfortunately, chances of successful structural and fiscal reforms by the new government are dim, due to its small and likely unstable majority.

Economic Comment

Stilte voor een storm? (Dutch)

Groei houdt stand begin 2016 maar blijft omgeven door neerwaartse risico’s. Stijgende grondstofprijzen helpen opkomende economieën. De economische situatie blijft fundamenteel broos en afhankelijk van (wijzigingen in) monetair beleid.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2016: Global Economy

Global growth holds up in 2016, but does not accelerate. With the US poised to hike interest rates, the rest of the world waits anxiously. Normalization of monetary policy poses economic risks, but so does keeping it too loose for too long.

Country Report

Country Report Ukraine

Due to the conflict, Ukraine’s economy has shrunk considerably, which also manifests economic mismanagement of the past years. The country’s outlook remains highly uncertain as the government hasn’t managed to set the economy on the right course yet.

Column

De tijdelijke of permanente Matiging (Dutch)

Economen noemen de periode van begin jaren tachtig tot het begin van de financiële crisis ook wel de Grote Matiging: een periode van voorspelbare economische groei, lage volatiliteit en daardoor afnemende risicopercepties. De laatste tijd lijkt er in de wereldeconomie weer iets soortgelijks aan de hand: de nieuwe Grote Matiging. Maar hoe lang gaat die deze keer duren?

Economic Update

Economic Update Russia

Russia’s economic growth has continued to slow this year and we expect 2.2% growth in 2013. The central bank is likely to loosen monetary policy amid falling inflation. The government’s stimulus measures are justifiable, but no effect is expected in the very short term.

Economic Update

Emerging markets – US tapering has a big impact

US tapering is leading to portfolio outflows in emerging markets, especially in countries that are running both a current account and budget balance deficit.