RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

The US recession of 2020

The recent flattening of US treasury yield curve has activated our early warning system. Our model now gives a 69% chance of a recession by May 2020 and is increasingly pointing at 2020 as the year of the next recession.

Economic Comment

The next US recession

The US yield curve is getting flatter, which means that long term rates are only slightly higher than short term rates. We expect the yield curve to invert in 2019, which means that long rates fall below short rates. This would signal a recession in 2020.

Special

Re-assessing the US-China trade war

This Special re-assesses the economic impact of the US-China trade war, using more advanced methodologies. Our analysis shows that China disproportionately bears the brunt of a US-China trade war, especially in case of a further escalation.

Special Dutch version

Trumpgate

Progress on President Trump’s legislative agenda has been slow and an increasing amount of time and energy in the White House and on Capitol Hill is spent on ‘Trumpgate’. We consider three different political routes that could be taken in the US.