RaboResearch - Economic Research

Column

Waar blijft ZorbaSave? (Dutch)

Onlangs was de Griekse premier op bezoek bij bondskanselier Merkel. De Grieken hebben niet om financiële steun gevraagd en op die niet-gestelde vraag hoefde Merkel niet te antwoorden. Wel willen de Duitsers een Europees Monetair Fonds oprichten.

Economic Comment

Are markets mispricing sovereign default risk again?

Some politicians and market participants are proposing to ban the trading of naked CDSs amid the surge in government bond yields. In our view, therefore, politicians must come up with austerity measures instead of searching for scapegoats.

Economic Quarterly Report

Grieks drama zet boel op scherp (Dutch)

De eurzone is in 2010 begonnen aan aan haar grootste test sinds de introductie van de euro. Enkele Europese overheden hebben in korte tijd enorme begrotingstekorten opgelopen en hun schulden zijn nog sterker toegenomen.

Economic Comment

Germany: Will growth also disappoint in H1 2010?

We expect Germany’s economy to be supported by the inventory correction as well as external demand in H1 2010. There are, however, significant downside risks to this forecast.

Economic Comment

Will Greece face trouble rolling over its debt?

Rumours are mounting that a Greek syndicated bond issue is to be launched within days. This is an important event as the success or failure of such issuance will determine whether the Greeks have to go cap in hand to the European Commission or not.

Economic Comment

Should the Greeks go on a holiday?

Some market participants and notable economists are arguing that Greece needs to exit the eurozone, even temporarily, in order to regain its external competitiveness. As attractive as this option sounds, we are inclined to strongly disagree.

Economic Comment

Germany no longer the exportweltmeister

China has taken over Germany as the world’s export champion. But this is indeed a positive development for Germany and the government should actively pursue policies to rebalance the economy even more towards domestic demand.

Economic Comment

Germany's 09Q4 growth can disappoint

Germany’s economy has contracted by a record 5.0% y-o-y in 2009. Quarterly growth in 09Q4 should be flat. However, the business surveys and the orders data suggest that economy has expanded moderately in 09Q4.

Economic Report

Het veranderende Nederlandse bankenlandschap (Dutch)

Ruim twee jaar na het uitbreken van de kredietcrisis krabbelen banken weer op. Hoe vergaat het tegen deze achtergrond de Nederlandse top 5-banken en wat betekent de crisis voor de concurrentieverhoudingen in het bankenlandschap?

Column

De zieke man van Europa (Dutch)

Opnieuw is duidelijk geworden dat Griekenland de zieke man van Europa is. Nadat het land zich eerst ongestraft de euro in kon jokken, blijkt nu dat het gedrag en de financiële positie niet is verbeterd. Het is de achilleshiel van de Europese integratie.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2010: globalisation at a crossroads

With regard to globalization, we find ourselves at a crossroads in a number of areas. In this special report we focus on the future - even more so than in our economic Outlook for 2010 and beyond - and we describe the dynamic field in which changes to the economic and political world order are currently taking place.

Column

Het is weer het seizoen... (Dutch)

Vorig jaar. Ik zal het niet snel vergeten. Bij mij thuis was net nieuw leven, in de bancaire sector vielen alleen maar slachtoffers. Op 15 september begon het met Lehman Brothers. Daarna denderde de crisis vooral in oktober door.

Economic Report

China: 6.5% is 3.5%, really!

The Chinese government publish consistently higher growth figures during economic downturns in the hope of maintaining social stability. Hence, we expect a growth figure close to 6.5% yoy for 2009, while the true figure will be closer to 3.5%.

Economic Report

India's capital account: open sesame

For India, the debate to fully open the capital account is a long-standing one. This Special Report elaborates on why India needs foreign capital and demonstrates that the country has already been gradually opening the capital account. This has led to India being in fact more open than meets the eye, but still has a long way to go.