Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
Economic growth in EMs disappoints again due to lower commodity prices and China’s slowdown. Higher growth in the Eurozone will result in a pick-up of growth in developed countries, but this will not be enough to prevent a slight slowdown in global growth.
Economic Quarterly Report
De wereldeconomie zal in 2014 en 2015 naar verwachting langzaam herstellen. Over de gehele linie zijn de risico’s iets kleiner dan de afgelopen jaren, maar eventuele schokken kunnen in dit stadium wel grote gevolgen hebben.
In this Economic Update we take a closer look at the impact of the gradual slowing down of the rate of asset purchases by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on the emerging markets.
US tapering is leading to portfolio outflows in emerging markets, especially in countries that are running both a current account and budget balance deficit.
The past decade saw Turkey break with its turbulent past. This final Special Report on Turkey’s long-term economic prospects discusses our expectations for the coming decade in all these areas.
Located in both Europe and Asia, Turkey is often regarded as the bridge between east and west. This Special Report considers Turkey’s current social and political situation, as well as the challenges ahead.
Turkey’s growth performance over the past decade has been impressive but not without risks. This study looks at mechanisms to improve Turkey’s domestic savings rate, as well as the country’s efforts to guarantee long-term investments from abroad.
The competitiveness of the Turkish economy is obstructed by a high minimum wage, stringent labor laws and a flawed education system. Improvements are needed to allow Turkey to compete abroad and fully benefit from a young and growing labour market.
Despite Turkey's economic success over the past decade, its large external imbalance remains a cause for concern. This report considers the risks, as well as the reforms needed to reduce this imbalance and move to a more sustainable growth path.
Several emerging markets continue to experience a slowdown in growth. Growth in 12Q2 went down in both Russia and Turkey, while growth in China is likely to slow down further in Q3 as well. Meanwhile, industrial production in Mexico remained strong.
Turkey’s economic growth slowed in 4Q11. Still, volatile growth rates, combined with large current account deficits and stubbornly high inflation rates remain worrisome.
While Turkey’s industrial production growth is slowing, both inflation and the current account deficit remain elevated, suggesting that the central bank must not ease policy just yet.