RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

The Third Round of French Elections

On June 12 and 19, the French will go to the ballot boxes for the legislative elections. Polls indicate that Macron’s center coalition is set to win a majority, but this is far from certain. If he isn’t able to secure a majority, his hands will be tied to a significant extent.

Special

Re-appraising Eurozone inflation

Another revision to our Eurozone forecast brings into question the timing of peak inflation and how fast it will decline afterwards. Commodities and supply chains cannot fully explain recent inflation surprises, suggesting that some of this may be structural.

Economic Comment

France: A Second Term for Macron

Macron has won a second term as president of France. His first term was quite successful from an economic point of view and he is likely to push on with his reform agenda. The degree to which he is able to do so, is dependent on the outcome of the legislative elections in June.

Column

Hoe gaat Europa afkicken van Russische brandstoffen? (Dutch)

Als de invoer van Russisch gas stokt, komt onze gasvoorziening zonder verlaging van de vraag eind 2022 in de knel. Pijnloze oplossingen op de korte termijn zijn er dan ook niet en de recessierisico’s nemen in zo’n scenario aanzienlijk toe. Wel kan de huidige crisis mogelijk de energietransitie flink versnellen.

Special

United States: Yield curve inversions and recessions

Yield curve inversions are often seen as warning signals of a recession, but a statistical analysis suggests that these signals should be interpreted with care. We provide the thresholds that would indicate a probability of a recession higher than 50%.

Special

New Zealand: Two sides of the same coin

The economic effect of Omicron will be contained in Q1 before growth accelerates from Q2 onwards. However, higher prices and lower global growth, fuelled by the war in Ukraine, drag on economic growth in the second half of 2022. As such, the recovery is likely to be not as strong as it looks at face value.

Economic Comment Dutch version

COVID-19 Economic Dashboard

Hard economic data usually comes available at quite some lag. To gauge the economic impact of COVID-19 we look at more timely economic indicators that are readily available. Data on traffic jams, international flights, and restaurant bookings are released sooner and more frequently. This helps us to better monitor the economic situation during the COVID-19 crisis.

Economic Update

India’s economy gets back on track

Growth of 20.1% in India in Q2 is misleading, as economic output was disrupted by a second Covid-19 outbreak. Going forward, we expect an economic recovery as restrictions ease and mobility increases, fostering consumption and investments.