RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Een paraplu kopen als de zon schijnt (Dutch)

Vooral uit de eurozone kwam de afgelopen tijd het nodige goede economische nieuws. Dit leidt er echter toe dat Europese beleidsmakers te weinig doen aan de hervorming van instituties en economieën om de eurozone voor te bereiden op slechtere tijden.

Country Report

Country Report Spain

Despite the improvement of the short term economic outlook, several bottlenecks of the Spanish economy (rigid labour market, weak banking sector) desire policy urgency. Unfortunately, upcoming elections are clearly weighing on the political support to continue with necessary reforms.

Country Report

Country Report Greece

The outlook of the Greek economy outlook is improving, while progress under the bailout program remains broadly on track. That said, future political stability cannot be taken for granted and might weigh on the ability to push through with reforms.

Country Report

Country Report Portugal

The outlook for Portugal has improved in recent months, in terms of both economic recovery and future market access. However, this and next year’s election cycle are expected to weigh on support for further structural reforms.

Country Report

Country Report Luxembourg

The economy of Luxembourg took a positive turn in 2013 and the already strong fiscal position improved. However, in the longer term, the country needs to deal with challenges such as legislative harmonisation at the EU level and rising ageing costs.

Country Report

Country Report Canada

After a rapid recovery following the Great Recession, Canada’s economic growth slowed down. The transition to more balanced growth, with stronger contributions from exports and investment has proved elusive. Economic activity remained modest in 2013.

Country Report

Country Report Ireland

Ireland exited the EU/IMF bailout package in December 2013, and has regained market confidence. Nonetheless, challenges remain as the country remains dependent on the external environment, and skeletons may yet come out of the closet.

Country Report

Country Report Norway

The economic outlook is stable, public and external balance sheets are exceptionally healthy, insti-tutions strong and policymaking is adequate and effective. But, Norway has to deal with very high household debt alongside overvalued houses and is dependent on oil and gas (related) production.

Country Report

Country Report Switzerland

Thanks to private consumption, the Swiss economy is doing reasonably well. The persistently low interest rates causes house prices to rise. Populist policies, like the introduction of a cap on immigration will deteriorate the medium-term outlook.

Country Report

Country Report United Kingdom

The UK economy finally started to recover, although it still has a long way to go. Productivity is lagging and debt is elevated. The expansionary monetary policy combined with housing subsidies increases the risk of regional housing bubbles.

Country Report

Country Report Germany

The German economy performs well due to their competitive export sector and improving domestic demand. The housing market in the big cities is buoyant, but countrywide, there are no signs of overheating.

Country Report

Country Report Malta

Stronger economic growth and improved fiscal balances place Malta in a better position than a year ago, but challenges, such as the structurally high public debt, remain.

Country Report

Country Report Sweden

The Swedish central bank has recently voiced its concerns about the high level of household debt. Meanwhile, the centre-right coalition is likely to lose the September 2014 parliamentary elections.

Column

Het voelt (weer) bubbelig… (Dutch)

De beurskoersen staan op recordhoogte, zeker in de VS. De huizenprijzen in een aantal landen zijn flink aan het stijgen. Mooi, zou de conclusie kunnen zijn. Want dit betekent vermogenswinsten en blijkbaar dat de risico’s in Zuid-Europese landen zijn afgenomen. Het is de vraag of dat zo is.