RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

The US recession of 2020

The recent flattening of US treasury yield curve has activated our early warning system. Our model now gives a 69% chance of a recession by May 2020 and is increasingly pointing at 2020 as the year of the next recession.

Special

Re-assessing the US-China trade war

This Special re-assesses the economic impact of the US-China trade war, using more advanced methodologies. Our analysis shows that China disproportionately bears the brunt of a US-China trade war, especially in case of a further escalation.

Special Dutch version

Trumpgate

Progress on President Trump’s legislative agenda has been slow and an increasing amount of time and energy in the White House and on Capitol Hill is spent on ‘Trumpgate’. We consider three different political routes that could be taken in the US.

Special Dutch version

Trump’s impact on the economy

As of January 20, Donald J. Trump is President of the United States. In this Special we sketch the changes in economic policy that we should expect in the coming years, in particular in the areas of fiscal stimulus, trade policy, and energy policy. We also look at effects on US public debt sustainability, and market implications.

Special

The voice of Italy

Sunday 4 December, Italians will vote on a constitutional reform that should support policymaking in Italy. Yet the reform is not without downsides. The suggestion that a 'No'-vote would put Italy on a path towards leaving the Eurozone is wrong.

Special

EU exit contagion risk

In this Special we focus on political exit contagion risk of ‘Brexit’ to other EU countries. We look at the current political landscape in the EU and the rising trend of Euroscepticism. Although we still consider a repeat of ‘Brexit’ more unlikely than likely in all member states, some countries are certainly worth watching in the year ahead.