RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Quarterly Report

Rente en valuta: op eigen benen (Dutch)

De markten zijn lang gepamperd door de ECB, maar moeten weer op eigen benen leren staan. Zowel de korte als de lange rentes zullen echter aan de lage kant blijven. Het oplopende renteverschil met de VS zorgt voor toenemende druk op de eurodollar.

Economic Report

Brexit update: transition ON!

The EU and the UK reached an agreement over a transition period on March 19, 2018. That is good for business continuity but does not affect our Brexit outcome base case. Hence, we maintain our view that the economy will slow down in 2018.

Economic Report

UK election result: DUP saving the May day?

Theresa May wanted to exploit her enormous lead in the polls to strengthen her Brexit mandate, but this gamble has now backfired. The Conservatives lost their majority in the House of Commons, an arrangement with DUP is now a plausible scenario.

Special

United Kingdom: May's Way or the Highway

At the moment PM May called for snap elections, the Tories’ had a large lead in the polls. However, the gap with Labour has narrowed over the last few weeks. If the Tories lose their majority, this could have implications for the Brexit outcome.

Economic Comment

Orderly Brexit more likely due to snap elections

British Prime Minister Theresa May has called for snap elections to be held on 8 June. A victory for Ms. May seems likely at the moment, which would strengthen her Brexit mandate domestically, and her negotiation position with the EU.