RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Japanese snap elections: logic or gamble?

Japanese Premier Abe called for snap lower house elections to be held on October 22. We expect Abe’s coalition to win the election by majority, but major changes on the opposition side can turn the snap election from initial logic to a gamble.

Economic Report Dutch version

German elections: Was nun, Mutti?

While Merkel was the unsurprising winner of yesterday’s elections, the outcome suggests a shift in the German political landscape as the populist far-right AfD came in third. The process of finding a workable coalition starts now, but we may not see a new government before Christmas.

Economic Report

Franse verkiezingen: Macron, niemand wist dat-ie het kon (Dutch)

Macron dankt zijn grote overwinning aan een lage opkomst en implosie van de gevestigde partijen. De prioriteit van het nieuwe parlement zal het doorvoeren van arbeidsmarkthervormingen zijn. Een hervormde Franse economie kan leiden tot een herstel van de Frans-Duitse as en verdere verdieping in de EU.

Economic Report

UK election result: DUP saving the May day?

Theresa May wanted to exploit her enormous lead in the polls to strengthen her Brexit mandate, but this gamble has now backfired. The Conservatives lost their majority in the House of Commons, an arrangement with DUP is now a plausible scenario.