RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report United States

The US remains the largest economy in the World, on the back of its highly developed and flexible framework. Bi-partisan politics have rendered the federal government ineffective, but at least the most pressing economic uncertainties have been lifted.

Country Report

Country Report Japan

We believe Abenomics -consisting of fiscal, monetary and structural measures- is a unique opportunity to end deflation and spur growth. However, political reality shows that Abenomics is incomplete as structural reforms are clearly lagging.

Country Report

Country Report New Zealand

New Zealand suffers from a persistent gap between savings and investment. Growth is currently gaining momentum, but this is mainly credit-driven. House prices are increasing fast and the necessary deleveraging process has been put into reverse.

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De koppigheid van markten (Dutch)

Financiële markten zijn net kleine kinderen. Je vertelt wat er gaat gebeuren en vervolgens reageren ze eerst alsof ze van niets weten.

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Van groeipolitiek naar inkomenspolitiek (Dutch)

Inclusieve groei, dus groei die houdbaar is en ervoor zorgt dat ook de gemiddelde man in de straat er wat aan heeft, wordt steeds belangrijker. En dat vereist wellicht meer mondiale inkomenspolitiek dan groeipolitiek.

Economic Comment

Tapering, a game-changer?

The start of tapering in January 2014 is not expected to significantly change our global economic outlook. Nevertheless, it might have negative consequences for the bond markets of vulnerable countries, both in the emerging world and the eurozone.

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Te mooi om waar te zijn (Dutch)

Een belangrijke les van de mondiale financiële crisis van 2008 is dat de kapitaalbuffers van banken fors moeten worden verstevigd. De strengere eisen aan de risico-gewogen kapitaalratio van het Bazels Comité –Bazel III– voorzien hierin.

Economic Update

Spain: Basta recesión!

Spanish GDP rose in 13Q3, after nine quarterly contractions in a row. Although positive, we do not expect a quick recovery on the labour market. Based on the Budget 2014, the fiscal effort will be slightly less than in preceding years.

Economic Report

Duits regeerakkoord: ‘Grote coalitie’ zonder grootse plannen (Dutch)

Zoals verwacht bevat het akkoord weinig grote plannen. Het binnenlands beleid wordt gedomineerd door een uitruil van de stokpaardjes van de coalitiepartners, terwijl het Europees beleid een voortzetting wordt van de voorgaande twee kabinetten Merkel.

Country Report

Country Report Portugal

Portugal has made considerable progress regarding the implementation of structural reforms and safeguarding financial stability. However, the high short-term socioeconomic costs have increased political instability, which might weigh on support for further reforms.

Country Report

Country Report Spain

The short term pain of the macroeconomic rebalancing process is clearly weighing on the political support to continue with necessary reforms. Without a more vigorous cleanup of the banking sector, it will remain a large drag on the recovery going forward.

Economic Report

Outlook 2014 - United Kingdom

There are signs that UK’s economic activity is gathering momentum. But the recovery is not on a solid footing yet and, therefore, needs to be nurtured.