RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

De-dramatising Salzburg

The Brexit summit of EU leaders in Salzburg on 19-20 September ended up in a drama. That is not justified but it suggests the EU and the UK lack a good understanding of each other and that raises the odds of a ‘Hard Brexit’ by accident.

Column

There is no such thing as a costless Brexit

Leaving the EU has direct and structural economic costs for the UK, irrespective of how the country leaves the EU. The magnitude of the impact depends on the future trade relationship they will negotiate with the EU, and a transition period could soften the blow. From that perspective it is not reassuring that with six months left before ‘Brexit day’ the UK is still divided over the Brexit objectives.

Economic Report

Brexit update: squaring the circle

The UK government published a long awaited White Paper on the blueprint for the post-Brexit EU-UK relationship. The proposal brings more clarity but not more certainty. Hence the threat of a hard Brexit persists.

Economic Report

Brexit update: the day of reckoning

On 6 July PM May and her cabinet agreed on a blueprint for the future EU-UK economic relationship, one that keeps close ties to the EU post-Brexit and angered the Brexiteers. PM May averts another crisis but is not out of the woods yet.

Economic Report

Brexit update: May-be later

The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Theresa May, averts another crisis and pushes the Brexit can down the road making it likely that the Brexit negotiations run into further delays and the withdrawal agreement is ready only towards the end of 2018.

Economic Report

Brexit update: transition ON!

The EU and the UK reached an agreement over a transition period on March 19, 2018. That is good for business continuity but does not affect our Brexit outcome base case. Hence, we maintain our view that the economy will slow down in 2018.

Special Dutch version

Trump’s impact on the economy

As of January 20, Donald J. Trump is President of the United States. In this Special we sketch the changes in economic policy that we should expect in the coming years, in particular in the areas of fiscal stimulus, trade policy, and energy policy. We also look at effects on US public debt sustainability, and market implications.

Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

Global economic outlook: clouds in the rear- view mirror, storm on the horizon?

Economic growth is expected to slow down only slightly this year as global economic conditions are not as dramatic as recent financial markets turbulence suggests. There is no simple and accessible alternative to further monetary easing, whose effectiveness is diminishing while the negative side effects are compounding.