RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Brexit update: transition ON!

The EU and the UK reached an agreement over a transition period on March 19, 2018. That is good for business continuity but does not affect our Brexit outcome base case. Hence, we maintain our view that the economy will slow down in 2018.

Economic Update

Italy: elections unlikely to hamper economic recovery

Italians are very upbeat and don’t seem to worry about the upcoming elections. The short-term economic outlook is quite rosy. We expect the next government won’t endanger the recovery, but at the same time won’t improve the weak long-term outlook either.

Special Dutch version

Italian elections: three scenario’s

The Italian elections on March 4 will likely yield a hung parliament. The reform outlook is weak and some fiscal slippage is likely. We believe the risk of an unexperienced nationalist government is limited, but the market might well be underpricing risks.

Special

US: Is there rising wage growth on the horizon?

We predict wage growth to peak at 3.0 to 3.3% in the next two years. While this is higher than current levels, it’s on the low end of the Fed’s preferred range. At the same time, our models show that we’re already getting close to the peak of the economic cycle.

Economic Report

Catalan separatists tone down defiant stance

The risk of a new clash between Catalonia and Madrid in the coming weeks has dropped. Tensions will remain high in the coming years, but Catalonia will stay part of Spain. Notably, the political crisis has had limited impact on Spain’s economy.