RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Japan: Abe’s election ‘gamble’ turned into victory

Abe and his LDP-Komeito coalition were victorious at yesterday’s lower house elections. The disappointing election result for the opposition side is not surprising when one takes into account the short amount of time for a structured election campaign.

Economic Report

Japanese snap elections: logic or gamble?

Japanese Premier Abe called for snap lower house elections to be held on October 22. We expect Abe’s coalition to win the election by majority, but major changes on the opposition side can turn the snap election from initial logic to a gamble.

Economic Report Dutch version

German elections: Was nun, Mutti?

While Merkel was the unsurprising winner of yesterday’s elections, the outcome suggests a shift in the German political landscape as the populist far-right AfD came in third. The process of finding a workable coalition starts now, but we may not see a new government before Christmas.

Special

Why Trump’s protectionist trade agenda fails

So far, Trump has failed to implement much of his protectionist trade agenda. We discuss five reasons why we believe Trump will not implement a full-fletched package of protectionist measures. If Trump does resort to protectionism, US GDP could face losses up to -3.1 percentage points in 2018.

Special Dutch version

Trumpgate

Progress on President Trump’s legislative agenda has been slow and an increasing amount of time and energy in the White House and on Capitol Hill is spent on ‘Trumpgate’. We consider three different political routes that could be taken in the US.