RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

The Third Round of French Elections

On June 12 and 19, the French will go to the ballot boxes for the legislative elections. Polls indicate that Macron’s center coalition is set to win a majority, but this is far from certain. If he isn’t able to secure a majority, his hands will be tied to a significant extent.

Special

Re-appraising Eurozone inflation

Another revision to our Eurozone forecast brings into question the timing of peak inflation and how fast it will decline afterwards. Commodities and supply chains cannot fully explain recent inflation surprises, suggesting that some of this may be structural.

Special

United States: Yield curve inversions and recessions

Yield curve inversions are often seen as warning signals of a recession, but a statistical analysis suggests that these signals should be interpreted with care. We provide the thresholds that would indicate a probability of a recession higher than 50%.

Column

Wrange Brexit-druiven (Dutch)

Het is vijfeneenhalf jaar na het Brexit-referendum, bijna twee jaar nadat het Verenigd Koninkrijk de Europese Unie daadwerkelijk verliet en ruim een jaar sinds de nieuwe handelsrelatie tussen beide een feit is. Als we de balans opmaken, blijkt het beloofde Brexit-dividend weinig waard.

Special

United States infrastructure: Impact on economy and elections

Although the bipartisan infrastructure package is long overdue given the state of the infrastructure of the United States, it will hit the economy at a time of full employment and after a couple of years of high inflation. This means that the bang for the buck will be substantially eroded.

Special

German elections: Green means 'Go'

The Social Democrats are in pole position to lead Germany’s next coalition government, but protracted negotiations seem likely. A best guess is that Scholz will eventually lead a ‘Traffic light’ coalition of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP. There are, however, considerable divides to bridge and it could potentially take months before the successor to Merkel is finally decided.

Economic Report

Delta variant forces Australia into new lockdowns

Australia is facing new lockdowns due to the spread of the Delta variant. Nonetheless, we expect the economic impact to be less severe than last year. Inflation reached a high point of 3.8%. However, the central sees this as temporary and the RBA doesn’t expect to hike rates before 2024.

Economic Report

Australia: Policymakers shifting gears

The recent Australian federal budget represents a shift in budget strategy away from budget prudence towards higher spending. The combination of loose fiscal and monetary stimulus increases inflation expectations. However, the RBA doesn’t expect a rate hike before 2024 due to spare capacity in the economy.

Economic Report

EU Recovery fund officially ready for take-off

The European Commission has received an official go to start borrowing money to finance the EU recovery fund. Funds can start to flow to Member States this Summer. We estimate that these funds will lift Eurozone GDP by 0.5% over this and next year.