RaboResearch - Economic Research


Re-appraising Eurozone inflation

Another revision to our Eurozone forecast brings into question the timing of peak inflation and how fast it will decline afterwards. Commodities and supply chains cannot fully explain recent inflation surprises, suggesting that some of this may be structural.


Hoe gaat Europa afkicken van Russische brandstoffen? (Dutch)

Als de invoer van Russisch gas stokt, komt onze gasvoorziening zonder verlaging van de vraag eind 2022 in de knel. Pijnloze oplossingen op de korte termijn zijn er dan ook niet en de recessierisico’s nemen in zo’n scenario aanzienlijk toe. Wel kan de huidige crisis mogelijk de energietransitie flink versnellen.


New Zealand: Two sides of the same coin

The economic effect of Omicron will be contained in Q1 before growth accelerates from Q2 onwards. However, higher prices and lower global growth, fuelled by the war in Ukraine, drag on economic growth in the second half of 2022. As such, the recovery is likely to be not as strong as it looks at face value.