RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Egypt

The ouster of president Morsi placed Egypt on a new political transition trajectory – unfortunately, not a more democratic one. Generous assistance from the GCC countries gives Egypt financial breathing space, but economic perspectives remain bleak due to unaddressed structural problems.

Country Report

Country Report Qatar

While the era of double digit economic growth is over, Qatar’s economy is likely to expand by a still robust 5-6% in 2013. Qatar has built a reputation as an international peace broker, but its foreign policy entered choppy waters this year. Fixing this will be one of the challenges for the new emir, Sheikh Tamim.

Country Report

Country Report Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia’s economic growth is estimated to slow in 2013, but will pick up in 2014. Concerns about succession risks have diminished this year.

Country Report

Country Report Oman

Small-scale social unrest remains present in Oman and the increase in current government spending is a concern. Succession risks remain, as long as Sultan Said al Said fails to appoint a successor.

Country Report

Country Report Kuwait

The new parliament has an opportunity to push through economic reforms if it can control the traditionally high tensions with the government. Major challenges to boost the country’s important oil-sector remain..

Country Report

Country Report Egypt

The political stalemate in Egypt pushes the downtrodden economy further into the abyss. However, Egypt is expected to muddle through until the elections, but the downside risks are high.

Country Report

Country Report Tunisia

Political polarization and an upsurge in radicalization make stability maintenance a challenge for Tunisia, while its realization is essential for a recovery of the economy and for restoring the increasing external and fiscal imbalances.

Country Report

Country Report Morocco

The popular Moroccan king maintains political stability, but the macroeconomic imbalances are aggravating as long as reforming the excessive subsidy bill is staved off.

Country Report

Country Report Israel

Economic growth in Israel is expected to slow in 2013 but pick up in 2014 as gas output increases. The new government has an opportunity to push through reforms. Tensions with Syria and Iran will continue in the forecast period.

Country Report

Country Report United Arab Emirates

The economy of the oil-rich United Arab Emirates is estimated to grow between 3-4% in 2013. Although the UAE has hardly been touched by the political turmoil in the Arab world, youth unemployment is rising and is a source of potential unrest.

Country Report

Country Report Bahrain

The largest country risks for Bahrain lie in the political and social spheres. We expect the social unrest originated in the Arab spring to continue, but not on the scale seen in 2011. Economic growth is forecast at 3.5-4% in 2013.

Country Report

Country Report Lebanon

The largest country risks in Lebanon lie in the political sphere, as conflicts between the government and opposition are fierce. The economic outlook is bleak as the regional unrest, particularly in Syria, will weigh on economic activity.

Country Report

Country Report Turkey

After nearly overheating in 2011, Turkey’s economic growth came to a halt in 2012, as the government and Central Bank successfully cooled domestic demand and reined in the massive influx of portfolio investments.

Country Report

Country Report Jordan

The precarious social situation is the largest country risk in Jordan, as protests continue in the wake of the Arab Spring. The country runs substantial twin deficits, which is worrisome. The economy is forecast to grow by 3% in 2013.