RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Outlook 2013: Middle East and North Africa

The revolution that shook the Arab world in 2011, continues to affect the region's economic performance and political stability. In addition, the region is sensitive to the ongoing crisis in the eurozone and slowing growth in the rest of the world.

Country Report

Qatar (Country Report)

The domestic social situation in Qatar is stable, but an escalation of the civil war in Syria and the conflict between Israel and Iran remain geopolitical risks. We estimate economic growth at 6.5% in 2012.

Country Report

Egypt (Country Update)

Egypt's economy is slowly recovering from the turmoil surrounding the Arab spring and subsequent events. With an elected government in place, some of the uncertainty of the past years has been removed.

Country Report

Algeria (Country Report)

Growth slowed in Algeria on account of reduced energy production and weaker demand from Europe. Still, due to an expected increase in oil production and further economic diversification, we expect growth rates to average 5% in the coming years.

Country Report

Kuwait (Country report)

The turmoil in the Arab world had little impact on Kuwait, although concerns of contagion remain. A large risk lies in the political sphere, wherefrictions severely hamper economic reforms. Economic growth is estimated at 5% in 2012.

Country Report

Libya (Country report)

Libya has been successful in rebuilding the oil fields that were damaged during the revolution and subsequent civil war. As a result, economic recovery will be more rapid than previously anticipated.

Country Report

Oman (Country Update)

Oman's economy will grow by 4.9% in 2012, buoyed by domestic demand and external demand for its oil and gas exports. A downside risk is the uncertain global economy, especially the eurozone peripheral debt crisis and slowing growth in China.

Country Report

Saudi Arabia (Country Report)

Saudi Arabia is a prosperous country due to an abundance of hydrocarbon resources and is estimated to grow by 5.6% in 2012. The country was hardly affected by contagion from the Arab Spring protests, due to substantial government hand-outs.

Country Report

Country Update Tunisia

Violent protests and strikes continue in Tunisia and will result in low GDP growth in 2012. Meanwhile, continued unrest will further aggravate the growing external and fiscal imbalances.

Country Report

United Arab Emirates (Country report)

The UAE has hardly been touched by the political turmoil in the Arab world. Even so, concerns exist on the medium to long-term fallout of the regional turmoil. The economy is expected to grow a sound 3.5% in 2012.

Special

Why people rebel: Political risk analysis

The Arab Spring took the world by surprise. In a matter of months, protests spread from Tunisia to almost every country in the Middle East and North Africa. Why do people rebel? What triggers these uprisings? This study looks for answers.

Country Report

Bahrein (Country report)

The largest country risks for Bahrain lie in the political and social spheres. We expect the social unrest originated in the Arab spring uprising last year to continue as the grievances of the Shi’a community are not likely to be met.

Country Report

Egypt (Country update)

Egypt’s political and economic outlook remains fragile. It is estimated that the country requires roughly USD 11bn in the next two years to prevent a fiscal and/or balance of payments crisis.

Country Report

Israel (Country report)

Israel’s modern, high-tech, open and service based economy is expected to slow from 4.8% in 2011 to 2% in 2012. Contagion from the Arab Spring hit Israel when massive street protests ensued in July 2011, and social unrest could flare up again.

Economic Comment

Turkey: growth slows, but worries remain

Turkey’s economic growth slowed in 4Q11. Still, volatile growth rates, combined with large current account deficits and stubbornly high inflation rates remain worrisome.