RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

The oil market in turmoil: a case of losers and winners

Scenario analyses shows that a surge in oil prices results in a global economic loss of 0.4ppts-0.9ppts between 2018 and 2022. The economic impact, however, is very unevenly distributed among countries. We distinguish three groups: the vulnerable ones, the lucky ones, and the uncomfortable ones.

Economic Comment

In oil, rebalancing is the key word

According to the World Energy Outlook of the International Energy Agency the oil sector is adjusting to the new reality after the sharp oil price shock of 2014. And that translates to low though increasing oil prices.

Special

Oil: the Good, the Bad and the Ugly

The recent plunge in oil prices will be a net plus for the global economy. The pain will be felt by major oil producers and for some this may cause serious problems. However, we still expect the global economy to gain more than the losers will lose.