RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

United Arab Emirates (Country report)

The UAE has hardly been touched by the political turmoil in the Arab world. Even so, concerns exist on the medium to long-term fallout of the regional turmoil. The economy is expected to grow a sound 3.5% in 2012.

Special

Why people rebel: Political risk analysis

The Arab Spring took the world by surprise. In a matter of months, protests spread from Tunisia to almost every country in the Middle East and North Africa. Why do people rebel? What triggers these uprisings? This study looks for answers.

Country Report

Bahrein (Country report)

The largest country risks for Bahrain lie in the political and social spheres. We expect the social unrest originated in the Arab spring uprising last year to continue as the grievances of the Shi’a community are not likely to be met.

Country Report

Egypt (Country update)

Egypt’s political and economic outlook remains fragile. It is estimated that the country requires roughly USD 11bn in the next two years to prevent a fiscal and/or balance of payments crisis.

Country Report

Israel (Country report)

Israel’s modern, high-tech, open and service based economy is expected to slow from 4.8% in 2011 to 2% in 2012. Contagion from the Arab Spring hit Israel when massive street protests ensued in July 2011, and social unrest could flare up again.

Economic Comment

Turkey: growth slows, but worries remain

Turkey’s economic growth slowed in 4Q11. Still, volatile growth rates, combined with large current account deficits and stubbornly high inflation rates remain worrisome.

Economic Comment

Turkey: keeping heads cool helps

While Turkey’s industrial production growth is slowing, both inflation and the current account deficit remain elevated, suggesting that the central bank must not ease policy just yet.

Country Report

Jordan (Country report)

The precarious social situation is the largest country risk in Jordan. The fallout from the Arab Spring protests has forced King Abdullah II to dismiss the government. Economic growth is estimated at a mere 2.6% in 2011 and 3.4% in 2012.

Country Report

Lebanon (Country report)

The largest country risks in Lebanon lie in the political sphere, as the conflicts between the coalition party and main opposition party are fierce and hinder any progress on economic reforms. The economic outlook is bleak.

Country Report

Algeria (Country update)

Algeria is experiencing continuing social unrest, although at a smaller scale than many other countries in the region. Meanwhile, the economy continues to grow at about 4% of GDP a year.

Country Report

Egypt (Country update)

After the revolution in the beginning of this year, Egypt’s political situation is still unstable. The main political risks include tensions between the Christian Coptic minority and Islamic parties, as well as the military not handing over power.

Country Report

Country Report Saudi Arabia

The Saudi Arabian economy is highly reliant on its oil resources. As it possesses a quarter of the world’s proven oil reserves and is the world’s only “swing producer” since it has considerable capacity to extract more barrels from its sources, the country plays an important international role.

Country Report

Qatar (Country update)

Qatar is a small Gulf state with only 0.9m inhabitants, who enjoy one of the world’s highest GDP per capita due the country’s vast hydrocarbon resources. The domestic social situation in Qatar is stable, despite fear of an Arab Spring revolution.

Country Report

Oman (Country report)

The country’s and the sovereign’s solvency is comfortably assured by at least a decade of (often substantial) current account and fiscal budget surpluses, although the value of external assets are not provided. We consider official and hidden reserves to be sufficient to cover for unlikely current account deficits. They are also large enough to defend the fixed exchange rate to the USD.