RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Israel (Country report)

Israel’s modern, high-tech, open and service based economy is expected to slow from 4.8% in 2011 to 2% in 2012. Contagion from the Arab Spring hit Israel when massive street protests ensued in July 2011, and social unrest could flare up again.

Economic Comment

Turkey: growth slows, but worries remain

Turkey’s economic growth slowed in 4Q11. Still, volatile growth rates, combined with large current account deficits and stubbornly high inflation rates remain worrisome.

Economic Comment

Turkey: keeping heads cool helps

While Turkey’s industrial production growth is slowing, both inflation and the current account deficit remain elevated, suggesting that the central bank must not ease policy just yet.

Country Report

Jordan (Country report)

The precarious social situation is the largest country risk in Jordan. The fallout from the Arab Spring protests has forced King Abdullah II to dismiss the government. Economic growth is estimated at a mere 2.6% in 2011 and 3.4% in 2012.

Country Report

Lebanon (Country report)

The largest country risks in Lebanon lie in the political sphere, as the conflicts between the coalition party and main opposition party are fierce and hinder any progress on economic reforms. The economic outlook is bleak.

Country Report

Algeria (Country update)

Algeria is experiencing continuing social unrest, although at a smaller scale than many other countries in the region. Meanwhile, the economy continues to grow at about 4% of GDP a year.

Country Report

Egypt (Country update)

After the revolution in the beginning of this year, Egypt’s political situation is still unstable. The main political risks include tensions between the Christian Coptic minority and Islamic parties, as well as the military not handing over power.

Country Report

Country Report Saudi Arabia

The Saudi Arabian economy is highly reliant on its oil resources. As it possesses a quarter of the world’s proven oil reserves and is the world’s only “swing producer” since it has considerable capacity to extract more barrels from its sources, the country plays an important international role.

Country Report

Qatar (Country update)

Qatar is a small Gulf state with only 0.9m inhabitants, who enjoy one of the world’s highest GDP per capita due the country’s vast hydrocarbon resources. The domestic social situation in Qatar is stable, despite fear of an Arab Spring revolution.

Country Report

Oman (Country report)

The country’s and the sovereign’s solvency is comfortably assured by at least a decade of (often substantial) current account and fiscal budget surpluses, although the value of external assets are not provided. We consider official and hidden reserves to be sufficient to cover for unlikely current account deficits. They are also large enough to defend the fixed exchange rate to the USD.

Economic Report

Price fighters

Increased demand in emerging markets, combined with a series of failed harvests have sent food prices through the roof.

Country Report

Libya (Country update)

Last February, protests against the Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi spiralled into a civil war between Qaddafi’s security forces and supporters of the interim Transitional National Council (TNC) that seek to topple Qaddafi’s regime, as well as NATO forces siding with the TNC. The conflict has killed thousands and has crippled the Libyan economy.

Economic Quarterly Report

Focus: The Arab spring

It's a compelling tale. With wave after wave of protests sweeping through country after country, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) finally appear ready for a democratic, peaceful future. The truth is – obviously – more complicated.