RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Wereldeconomisch commentaar: de eurozone op weg naar deflatie? (Dutch)

In de afgelopen weken is de olieprijs fors gedaald. Mocht deze voor langere tijd laag blijven, dan is dit een positieve impuls voor de wereldeconomie. Een neveneffect is dat de kans op tijdelijke deflatie in de eurozone aanzienlijk is toegenomen.

Country Report

Country Report Algeria

Algeria’s social situation remains stable as President Bouteflika was elected for his fourth term in office. The government presented a new five-year plan that once more aims to diversify the economy away from the hydrocarbon sector.

Country Report

Country Report Qatar

Qatar’s economy is likely to expand by a robust 6% in 2014, although it remains highly dependent on the hydrocarbon sector. Moreover, tensions with its GCC neighbours remain a challenge for Qatar given its ambition as an international peace broker.

Country Report

Country Report Egypt

Domestic stability in Egypt has improved markedly and the economy is showing timid signs of recovery. The government has engaged in bold reforms and generous aid from the GCC countries gives Egypt the financial space to gradually implement them.

Country Report

Country Report Saudi Arabia

Weaker oil markets are hurting Saudi Arabia given the high reliance of the economy and government income on the hydrocarbon sector. Fortunately, strong financial buffers provide sufficient mitigation for now.

Country Report

Country Report Oman

Economic growth is expected to maintain its momentum in the medium term underpinned by strong domestic demand and economic diversification. However, the increase in current government spending challenges fiscal sustainability.

Country Report

Country Report Kuwait

Kuwait’s hydrocarbon dependent economy slowed in 2013 and prospects for 2014 are stable. The political focus seems to be shifting towards the crown prince succession, which might stall progress booked on economic reforms in the past year.

Country Report

Country Report Morocco

In 2013, economic growth in Morocco accelerated, but it is likely to slow down somewhat in 2014. Morocco has been able to reduce its twin deficits somewhat, though these deficits remain sizeable.

Country Report

Country Report Egypt

A generous financial lifeline from the GCC countries kept the Egyptian economy afloat in 2013 and will do so again in 2014. However, persistent polarisation of the Egyptian society makes the country’s future highly uncertain.

Country Report

Country Report Israel

The Israeli economy is likely to continue to grow at a moderate pace, while the rising mortgage debt and housing prices pose risks. Meanwhile, the latest round of peace talks with the Palestinians collapsed in late April.

Country Report

Country Report UAE

The UAE’s economy is estimated to grow at a solid pace of 4-5% in the coming years. Meanwhile, the run up in asset prices has increased fears of a renewed speculative bubble.

Country Report

Country Report Bahrain

Economic growth in Bahrain is estimated to slow to around 3% in 2014. Government finances are strained due high social spending and large energy subsidies.

Column

De koppigheid van markten (Dutch)

Financiële markten zijn net kleine kinderen. Je vertelt wat er gaat gebeuren en vervolgens reageren ze eerst alsof ze van niets weten.

Country Report

Country Report Lebanon

Economic growth was weak at 1.3% in 2013, as violence in Syria spilled over into Lebanon. While a political impasse keeps reforms on hold, the Central Bank’s stimulus package might help improve performance in 2014.

Economic Update

Impact of tapering on emerging markets

In this Economic Update we take a closer look at the impact of the gradual slowing down of the rate of asset purchases by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on the emerging markets.