RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Saudi Arabia

Weaker oil markets are hurting Saudi Arabia given the high reliance of the economy and government income on the hydrocarbon sector. Fortunately, strong financial buffers provide sufficient mitigation for now.

Country Report

Country Report Oman

Economic growth is expected to maintain its momentum in the medium term underpinned by strong domestic demand and economic diversification. However, the increase in current government spending challenges fiscal sustainability.

Country Report

Country Report Kuwait

Kuwait’s hydrocarbon dependent economy slowed in 2013 and prospects for 2014 are stable. The political focus seems to be shifting towards the crown prince succession, which might stall progress booked on economic reforms in the past year.

Country Report

Country Report Morocco

In 2013, economic growth in Morocco accelerated, but it is likely to slow down somewhat in 2014. Morocco has been able to reduce its twin deficits somewhat, though these deficits remain sizeable.

Country Report

Country Report Egypt

A generous financial lifeline from the GCC countries kept the Egyptian economy afloat in 2013 and will do so again in 2014. However, persistent polarisation of the Egyptian society makes the country’s future highly uncertain.

Country Report

Country Report Israel

The Israeli economy is likely to continue to grow at a moderate pace, while the rising mortgage debt and housing prices pose risks. Meanwhile, the latest round of peace talks with the Palestinians collapsed in late April.

Country Report

Country Report UAE

The UAE’s economy is estimated to grow at a solid pace of 4-5% in the coming years. Meanwhile, the run up in asset prices has increased fears of a renewed speculative bubble.

Country Report

Country Report Bahrain

Economic growth in Bahrain is estimated to slow to around 3% in 2014. Government finances are strained due high social spending and large energy subsidies.

Column

De koppigheid van markten (Dutch)

Financiële markten zijn net kleine kinderen. Je vertelt wat er gaat gebeuren en vervolgens reageren ze eerst alsof ze van niets weten.

Country Report

Country Report Lebanon

Economic growth was weak at 1.3% in 2013, as violence in Syria spilled over into Lebanon. While a political impasse keeps reforms on hold, the Central Bank’s stimulus package might help improve performance in 2014.

Economic Update

Impact of tapering on emerging markets

In this Economic Update we take a closer look at the impact of the gradual slowing down of the rate of asset purchases by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on the emerging markets.

Country Report

Country Report Egypt

The ouster of president Morsi placed Egypt on a new political transition trajectory – unfortunately, not a more democratic one. Generous assistance from the GCC countries gives Egypt financial breathing space, but economic perspectives remain bleak due to unaddressed structural problems.

Country Report

Country Report Qatar

While the era of double digit economic growth is over, Qatar’s economy is likely to expand by a still robust 5-6% in 2013. Qatar has built a reputation as an international peace broker, but its foreign policy entered choppy waters this year. Fixing this will be one of the challenges for the new emir, Sheikh Tamim.

Country Report

Country Report Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia’s economic growth is estimated to slow in 2013, but will pick up in 2014. Concerns about succession risks have diminished this year.

Country Report

Country Report Oman

Small-scale social unrest remains present in Oman and the increase in current government spending is a concern. Succession risks remain, as long as Sultan Said al Said fails to appoint a successor.