RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

De wereld drijft in olie (Dutch)

Overschot aan olie houdt prijzen laag in 2016. Dat is per saldo een plus voor de wereldeconomie, maar vormt wel een risico voor inflatieverwachtingen. Bovendien verslechteren de economische omstandigheden in olie exporterende landen.

Special

Institutional quality and economic performance

Institutional quality and economic development reinforce each other over the longer term, but we argue that institutional quality leads this virtuous circle. It unlocks growth potential and does not intrinsically suffer from diminishing returns.

Economic Comment

Bewogen start van het jaar (Dutch)

Oplopende spanningen tussen Saoedi Arabië en Iran hebben macro economisch vooralsnog een beperkte impact. Echter, de spanningen zouden instabiliteit kunnen vergroten in het Midden Oosten en de huidige vluchtelingencrisis in Europa verergeren.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2016: Financial Markets

While there will be a devaluation of the Chinese renminbi, the dollar will also become stronger more generally in 2016, due in part to the Fed’s interest rate increases. The ECB is more likely to do the opposite, which will weaken the euro/dollar currency pair further still. Slightly higher capital market rates can be expected though.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2016: Global Economy

Global growth holds up in 2016, but does not accelerate. With the US poised to hike interest rates, the rest of the world waits anxiously. Normalization of monetary policy poses economic risks, but so does keeping it too loose for too long.

Column Dutch version

Outlook 2016: green surrounded by orange

In an international climate where so many indicators are orange, we should count our blessings for now that the Netherlands is set to be a green oasis both this year and next. Things have looked rather different in recent years.

Economic Comment

In oil, rebalancing is the key word

According to the World Energy Outlook of the International Energy Agency the oil sector is adjusting to the new reality after the sharp oil price shock of 2014. And that translates to low though increasing oil prices.

Country Report

Country Report Lebanon

Lebanon’s economy continues to show weak growth in 2014 (3%), being adversely effected by the conflict in Syria. But the banking sector remains healthy and Lebanon still has ample foreign reserves, which mitigates its otherwise high country risk.

Country Report

Country Report Jordan

Jordan’s economic situation is improving. GDP growth has picked up to 3.1% in 2014, driven by lower oil prices and growth in the tourism sector. The greatest risk is still that the conflicts in Syria and Iraq will lead to negative spill-overs.

Economic Report

Iran: dealing with the deal

Iran’s nuclear deal will be a clear plus for its economy and its trade partners. Globally, the economic impact is mainly through lower oil prices. Geopolitically, it might increase tensions within the Middle East as Iran becomes more powerful.