RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Israel

The Israeli economy is likely to continue to grow at a moderate pace, while the rising mortgage debt and housing prices pose risks. Meanwhile, the latest round of peace talks with the Palestinians collapsed in late April.

Country Report

Country Report UAE

The UAE’s economy is estimated to grow at a solid pace of 4-5% in the coming years. Meanwhile, the run up in asset prices has increased fears of a renewed speculative bubble.

Country Report

Country Report Bahrain

Economic growth in Bahrain is estimated to slow to around 3% in 2014. Government finances are strained due high social spending and large energy subsidies.

Country Report

Country Report Lebanon

Economic growth was weak at 1.3% in 2013, as violence in Syria spilled over into Lebanon. While a political impasse keeps reforms on hold, the Central Bank’s stimulus package might help improve performance in 2014.

Economic Update

Impact of tapering on emerging markets

In this Economic Update we take a closer look at the impact of the gradual slowing down of the rate of asset purchases by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on the emerging markets.

Country Report

Country Report Egypt

The ouster of president Morsi placed Egypt on a new political transition trajectory – unfortunately, not a more democratic one. Generous assistance from the GCC countries gives Egypt financial breathing space, but economic perspectives remain bleak due to unaddressed structural problems.

Country Report

Country Report Qatar

While the era of double digit economic growth is over, Qatar’s economy is likely to expand by a still robust 5-6% in 2013. Qatar has built a reputation as an international peace broker, but its foreign policy entered choppy waters this year. Fixing this will be one of the challenges for the new emir, Sheikh Tamim.

Country Report

Country Report Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia’s economic growth is estimated to slow in 2013, but will pick up in 2014. Concerns about succession risks have diminished this year.

Country Report

Country Report Oman

Small-scale social unrest remains present in Oman and the increase in current government spending is a concern. Succession risks remain, as long as Sultan Said al Said fails to appoint a successor.

Economic Report

The Turkish 2000-01 banking crisis

Turkey experienced a severe banking crisis during 2000 and 2001. The crisis had a major impact on banking supervision and regulation, as both were extensively strengthened.

Country Report

Country Report Kuwait

The new parliament has an opportunity to push through economic reforms if it can control the traditionally high tensions with the government. Major challenges to boost the country’s important oil-sector remain..

Country Report

Country Report Egypt

The political stalemate in Egypt pushes the downtrodden economy further into the abyss. However, Egypt is expected to muddle through until the elections, but the downside risks are high.

Country Report

Country Report Tunisia

Political polarization and an upsurge in radicalization make stability maintenance a challenge for Tunisia, while its realization is essential for a recovery of the economy and for restoring the increasing external and fiscal imbalances.

Country Report

Country Report Morocco

The popular Moroccan king maintains political stability, but the macroeconomic imbalances are aggravating as long as reforming the excessive subsidy bill is staved off.

Country Report

Country Report Israel

Economic growth in Israel is expected to slow in 2013 but pick up in 2014 as gas output increases. The new government has an opportunity to push through reforms. Tensions with Syria and Iran will continue in the forecast period.