RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special Dutch version

The GCC: going cold turkey on oil?

The oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries suffer from the oil price slump while diversification will prove difficult. In the short-run, the necessary budgetary consolidation Oman, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia will weigh on political risk.

Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

Global economic outlook: clouds in the rear- view mirror, storm on the horizon?

Economic growth is expected to slow down only slightly this year as global economic conditions are not as dramatic as recent financial markets turbulence suggests. There is no simple and accessible alternative to further monetary easing, whose effectiveness is diminishing while the negative side effects are compounding.

Economic Comment

In oil, rebalancing is the key word

According to the World Energy Outlook of the International Energy Agency the oil sector is adjusting to the new reality after the sharp oil price shock of 2014. And that translates to low though increasing oil prices.

Country Report

Country Report Egypt

Domestic stability in Egypt has improved markedly and the economy is showing timid signs of recovery. The government has engaged in bold reforms and generous aid from the GCC countries gives Egypt the financial space to gradually implement them.

Country Report

Country Report Saudi Arabia

Weaker oil markets are hurting Saudi Arabia given the high reliance of the economy and government income on the hydrocarbon sector. Fortunately, strong financial buffers provide sufficient mitigation for now.

Country Report

Country Report Kuwait

Kuwait’s hydrocarbon dependent economy slowed in 2013 and prospects for 2014 are stable. The political focus seems to be shifting towards the crown prince succession, which might stall progress booked on economic reforms in the past year.

Country Report

Country Report Egypt

A generous financial lifeline from the GCC countries kept the Egyptian economy afloat in 2013 and will do so again in 2014. However, persistent polarisation of the Egyptian society makes the country’s future highly uncertain.

Economic Update

Impact of tapering on emerging markets

In this Economic Update we take a closer look at the impact of the gradual slowing down of the rate of asset purchases by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on the emerging markets.

Country Report

Country Report Egypt

The ouster of president Morsi placed Egypt on a new political transition trajectory – unfortunately, not a more democratic one. Generous assistance from the GCC countries gives Egypt financial breathing space, but economic perspectives remain bleak due to unaddressed structural problems.

Country Report

Country Report Egypt

The political stalemate in Egypt pushes the downtrodden economy further into the abyss. However, Egypt is expected to muddle through until the elections, but the downside risks are high.

Country Report

Country Report Tunisia

Political polarization and an upsurge in radicalization make stability maintenance a challenge for Tunisia, while its realization is essential for a recovery of the economy and for restoring the increasing external and fiscal imbalances.