Special
The coronavirus has a devastating impact on societies and economies, but never before have so many resources been channelled at finding ways to mitigate a virus. Hopes are pinned on vaccines, medicines, testing and increased health care capacity.
Economic Report
The US federal government is considering sending ‘helicopter money’ to Americans as an attractive alternative to outright monetary financing. This can be effective in slowing down a sharp decline in consumer spending, although it will probably not be enough to bring the economy back on an upward growth path.
Special
We have changed our base case and now expect a recession in virtually all G10 countries, which will lead world economic growth to slow to 0.7% for 2020, the weakest this figure has been since the great financial crisis of 2008/2009.
Special Dutch version
Over the past week, Eurozone member states have announced drastic virus containment measures and large fiscal support measure are coming on stream. Moreover, the ECB has announced an extensive stimulus package as well.
Economic Comment
De ECB bezit inmiddels 20% van de publieke schuld van de EMU-landen. Door een deel van deze schuld weg te strepen kan de ECB helpen om begrotingsruimte te creëren. Het vergt goede afspraken, maar landen kunnen dan wel de financiële gevolgen van de coronacrisis opvangen.
Column
De verspreiding van het coronavirus heeft in een paar weken tijd de manier waarop we met elkaar omgaan veranderd. Ook op economisch gebied heeft het coronavirus de potentie om taboes en vooringenomen posities te doorbreken.
Column
We have estimated the impact of COVID-19 on India’s economy, which in our base case is relatively benign due to India’s limited ties with China. However, if there the virus spreads further within India growth will go down sharply.
Economic Report Dutch version
At the start of 2020 sentiment indicators indicated a lacklustre growth for the Germany economy. The COVID-19 virus drastically changed that view however. We have revised our forecast from 0.5% to -0.3%. We forecast a recession in the second quarter of 2020.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
COVID-19 has the global economy in its grip. Apart from a sharp slowdown in China, we also expect a recession in Germany and Italy. If large parts of the world experience outbreaks on the scale of Italy or China, then practically all advanced economies would fall into recession.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
We expect the coronavirus to pull the Eurozone economy into a recession. For the year 2020 growth is projected to fall to around 0.2%. Yet a worse-case scenario is now definitely thinkable as well. The Italian and German economy will shrink this year.
Infographic
Infographic bij het Economisch Kwartaalbericht van maart 2020.
