Economic Report
China’s Q1 GDP growth surged to 18.3% on a year-to-year basis, mainly due to the low base in Q1 2020. We think the pace of the recovery will slow as the initial pent up demand in China dies out and policy support is scaled back.
Special
Advanced G20 countries have really fired up the cash canon compared to emerging G20 economies during Covid-19. But without this sizeable government spending by both the advanced and the emerging G20 countries, G20’s total contraction could have been four times more severe.
Economic Comment Dutch version
Hard economic data usually comes available at quite some lag. To gauge the economic impact of COVID-19 we look at more timely economic indicators that are readily available. Data on traffic jams, international flights, and restaurant bookings are released sooner and more frequently. This helps us to better monitor the economic situation during the COVID-19 crisis.
Economic Report
India showed 0.4% GDP growth in Q3 of FY21. Unfortunately a second wave of Covid cases is on the rise, which might hamper growth in the next months. Although vaccine implementation started mid-January, the pace of vaccination must accelerate if India is to reap economic benefits in 2021. Fortunately, availability of vaccines is not a constraint.
Special
President Biden has delivered a large covid relief package within the first 100 days of his administration that will support Americans at least through early September. By not fully exploring the bipartisan route, Biden has limited the type of policies that he can get through Congress going forward.
Economic Quarterly Report
We expect that recovery could start earlier in the Netherlands than in other countries, but the pace of vaccination rollout is just one of the uncertainties to be faced.
Economic Quarterly Report
Wat als de Europese overheden de beperkende maatregelen trager versoepelen dan verwacht? In dit scenario blijft het economische herstel in 2021 en 2022 grotendeels uit. Het Nederlandse bbp is een jaar later op pre-coronaniveau.
Economic Quarterly Report
De wereldeconomie zal dit jaar herstellen van de coronacrisis, aangevoerd door de Verenigde Staten en China. Door het snelle herstel maken de markten zich zorgen over inflatie. Hierdoor lopen de rentes op. Wij denken dat deze stijging tijdelijk is.
Special
Italy’s government headed by Mario Draghi faces a major task and serious challenges. Nevertheless, we argue that Draghi’s arrival has brightened Italy’s future. The economy should reach its pre-crisis level mid-2023, helped by the EU Recovery fund.
Special
After a harsh start of the year, the Eurozone economic outlook should start to improve from next quarter. With help of the EU recovery fund, the economy will hit its pre-pandemic level mid-2022. Yet only if the vaccination campaign gains ample speed.
Special
Markets have been in the grips of ‘reflation’. Unless wage inflation picks up or governments stimulate beyond covid-19, the current upward forces on inflation will prove transient. Therefore, the ECB is expected to look through this rise in inflation.
Special
We expect all ASEAN economies to grow this year, although at different speeds. The current high number of new Covid-19 cases underlines that the virus will continue to challenge economic recovery throughout 2021.
Economic Update
Different from other European nations, France has not reinstated a lockdown in the first quarter. Consequently, we do not expect the French economy to contract in the first quarter. For 2021 we expect the French economy to grow by 5.8 percent.
Economic Report
We expect a fiscal Q3 GDP figure of -1.8% (y/y) on 26 of February. In general, the outlook for India is improving as the economy picks up and the prospect of additional fiscal support as presented in the FY22 budget. At the same time the policies of the RBI and the government do entail a dose of future risk.
