RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Visie op 2013: Wennen aan lagere groei (Dutch)

De Nederlandse economie zal in 2013 nauwelijks groeien (+¦%). Wereldwijd moet de economische groei grotendeels uit de opkomende markten komen. Onder invloed van vooral de eurocrisis zal het mondiale groeiherstel in 2013 beperkt blijven tot 3?%.

Special

Outlook 2013: China

Weakened external demand and only limited growth supporting policies from the Chinese government were the main factors explaining China's slowing growth rate in the first three quarters of 2012. Growth is expected to accelerate this year and in 2013.

Special

Outlook 2013: Emerging Asia

In 2013, global economic growth is expected to be 3?%, with growth estimated to remain subdued in the US (1?%), the eurozone (?%) and Japan (1%). China's economy is expected to grow by between 7?% and 8?%.

Special

Outlook 2013: Lower growth is the new reality

In 2013 the Dutch economy will show a very low growth rate of just 0.25%. Globally, the emerging markets will drive economic growth mostly. We project that, mainly as a result of the euro crisis, the global economy will grow by only 3.75% in 2013.

Country Report

Maldives (Country Report)

The political situation in the Maldives escalated in February 2012, when President Nasheed resigned. With the presidential and general elections planned for 2013 and 2014, respectively, more political turmoil is expected.

Country Report

Taiwan (Country Report)

Taiwan's GDP growth is estimated to slow to 1.3% this year. Taiwan's banking sector is heavily exposed to the risky real estate and export sectors. Taiwan's has ample foreign exchange buffers to prevent liquidity problems.

Country Report

Indonesia (Country Update)

Indonesia's economy has shown great resilience and economic growth is expected to be around 6% this and next year. The political situation is less bright with the reform drive grinded to a halt and the ruling PD party connected to corruption scandals

Country Report

China (Country Report)

Economic growth has been slowing in China, to an estimated 7.8% in 2012. In the coming months, a major leadership transition will take place in China. The government's policies are not expected to change.

Economic Comment

China's growth rate slows further

In the third quarter, China's economic growth continued to slow, as had been expected. However, the data also shows some green shoots. We expect that growth will slightly accelerate in the last quarter, implying the growth slowdown has bottomed out.

Economic Quarterly Report

Economisch Kwartaalbericht - september 2012 (Dutch)

Na een groeivertraging in 2012 zal de groei van de wereldeconomie volgend jaar iets versnellen. De Nederlandse economie zal dit jaar naar verwachting krimpen met 0,5% en in 2013 iets herstellen met een BBP-groei van 0,5%.

Country Report

Sri Lanka (Country report)

Sri Lanka is an island situated in the Indian Sea. The end of the 26-year long civil war in May 2009 has majorly boosted its economic prospects. Overall, the socio-political situation seems to be the largest risk for Sri Lanka.

Country Report

Mongolia (Country report)

Mongolia's economy is growing by double-digit rates on the back of investments in the mining sector and expansionary fiscal policies. Mongolia's export structure is vulnerable, as it exports only a few commodities, nearly all to China.

Country Report

South Korea (Country report)

South Korea's export oriented economy is weathering the global economic slowdown relatively well, although growth is slowing. Economic policy continues to focus on stability rather than supporting growth.

Economic Quarterly Report

China: Herstel laat nog op zich wachten (Dutch)

De economische groei in China is verder vertraagd. Het beleid van de overheid heeft de groeivertraging nog niet kunnen keren. Ook het derde kwartaal is zwak begonnen, maar een voorzichtig herstel de komende maanden zichtbaar moeten worden.

Economic Quarterly Report

Japan: Impuls wederopbouw zwakt af (Dutch)

De Japanse groei houdt aan, maar verloopt na een groeispurt in het eerste kwartaal de rest van het jaar en volgend jaar waarschijnlijk aanmerkelijk trager. Parlemetari?rs zijn aarzelend overeengekomen het begrotingsbeleid aan te scherpen.