RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

US-China Trade War: Back to the Future

The US had announced USD 50bn of tariffs on Chinese exports and China has responded with a matching USD 50bn of tariffs on US exports. But the US has now raised the ante with a further unspecified USD 200bn of tariffs on Chinese goods - and the threat of a further USD 200bn if China responds again in kind. What is the possible impact and what might happen next?

Economic Comment

China en de Verenigde Staten stellen handelsoorlog vooralsnog uit (Dutch)

Handelsspanningen tussen de VS en China lijken kleiner te worden na de recente onderhandelingen, maar fundamentele verschillen blijven bestaan, bijvoorbeeld op het terrein van bescherming van intellectueel eigendom en ‘Made in China 2025’. Verder is het niet ondenkbaar dat de handelspuzzel inmiddels ook geopolitieke stukjes bevat.

Special

India: trade wars and capital flight

US trade and monetary policy will have a substantial effect on the Indian economy. We calculate a Indian capital flows model to assess the impact of an acceleration of the Fed’s tightening cycle. Our results show that India would lose USD 22bn in missed capital inflows up to 2022.